10. Washington Commanders
Adding a ton of talent in free agency this offseason, the Washington Commanders won just five games in 2025 and clearly were missing a ton of roster talent. Not only that, but Jayden Daniels struggled to stay on the field. Washington is probably angling toward finishing somewhere in the middle of their 2024 and 2025 seasons.
9. New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints won four of five games to end the 2025 season and are on the right track, as Tyler Shough did play quite well during that stretch for the Saints.
8. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota adding Kyler Murray in free agency is going to give this team a chance to flirt with 10 wins, as they quietly back-doored their way into a winning season last year. The NFC North is a loaded division, but a path exists for the Vikings.
7. Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts were 7-1 at one point in 2025, so we can't totally disregard that. Overpaying for Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce doesn't help things, but the Colts should be able to hover around .500 and feel like a competent team, if nothing else.
6. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs went heavy on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, but did end up overpaying for Kenneth Walker III in free agency. With a supporing cast on offense that still isn't quite good enough, the Chiefs aren't going to thrust back onto the scene in 2026 like many think.
5. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas sported one of the best offenses in the NFL last year and did add a ton of new faces on defenses, including Christian Parker, the new defenive coordinator. The arrow is absolutely pointing up if the Cowboys defense can simply be average.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay took ownership of the NFC South for years, but did regress a bit in 2025. It wasn't due to a lack of talent, as they dealt with injuries and bad offensive coaching at times. A regression to the mean could be on the table in 2026, as Tampa knows how to win and have enough talent to regain control of the division.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore bringing in Jesse Minter was a slam-dunk move this offseason, as the defense has definitely been a sore spot as of late. Injuries were a concern, but there's reason to believe that much of what we saw go wrong in 2025 could return to normal in 2026, as it was 'normal' for years before that.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati really did some nice work overhauling the defensive side of the ball this past offseason. With Joe Burrow and the offense always in a good spot, it's not going to take much from the overhauled unit in 2026. It's wild that the Bengals have missed the playoffs three years in a row now, but I'm getting 2021 vibes from this group.
1. Detroit Lions
Winners of seven of their first 11 back in 2025, the Detroit Lions sputtered down the stretch and ended up winning nine games, but it wasn't enough for the playoffs. With one of the best rosters in the NFL and a head coach-quarterback combination that many teams would love to have, the Lions ascension to the top of the NFC North was not an accident, and 2025 was absolutely an outlier.
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