We're definitely getting late enough into the season to where the playoff pictures in both conferences are heating up. It's clear that in the AFC, there is a cut-off after the current teams in the picture, but that doesn't mean things can't change in the coming days and weeks.
Now that Week 10 is about here, we're taking a deeper dive into the current picture, and we're starting by looking into the AFC, a loaded conference that also has some of the worst teams in football. For this exercise, we're power-ranking the AFC teams by their percentage chance to make the playoffs.
Let's dive into it here, using NFL.com's Next Gen Stats for our percentage changes, as of 1:35 PM ET on November 13th.
NFL Power Rankings: AFC rankings based on playoff chances.
13. Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets - <1% chance
Twenty-five percent of the AFC teams are essentially already eliminated, as their playoff chance is less than one percent. The Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets have a lot of things in common. One of those things would be subpar coaching across the board. A trio of these teams also have bottom-tier quarterback play. Geno Smith has actually been rather efficient this year, as it's been the coaching for the Jets that has thrown this season off.
Not only that, but each team sports a roster that just isn't quite there yet. The most obvious outlier team here, at least based on preseason expectations, is the Chargers. After two-straight 11-6 seasons, the Chargers are now the lone winless team in football.
All four teams are either in the middle of a rebuild, need a coaching change, or need to start a rebuild, or are some combination of the three, and it's hard to see how any of these teams become playoff contenders in 2027.
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