8. Houston Texans - 32% chance
Here come the Houston Texans? The Texans are now 3-1 over their last four games after an 0-3 start and are playing the Chargers, Browns, and Colts over the next three weeks. With the way CJ Stroud has played this year, and the fact that this defense is still supremely talented, Houston winning those three and getting to 6-5 would not be a shock.
It's still too early to say anything definitive, but the Texans playoff odds, while low now, can absolutely rise in the coming weeks.
7. New England Patriots - 58% chance
The New England Patriots lost just four games all of 2025 and already have four losses through nine games this year. New England has been bitten by the injury bug, and we have seen the AJ Brown era get impacted by that. To be honest, the final Wild Card spot in the AFC may come down to either Houston or New England, and with the Patriots having a near-60 percent chance, the odds are very clearly in their favor right now.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers - 78% chance
The Pittsburgh Steelers, despite being in the lead in the AFC North, have a 78 percent chance at the playoffs this year. Pittsburgh's old-school style of play has worked well this year thus far, but they'll simply need more from Aaron Rodgers in the coming weeks if they hope to make the postseason. The roster itself is nothing overly special, so Pittsburgh eventually falling behind Cincinnati in the AFC North standings would not be a shock.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - 91% chance
The Kansas City Chiefs have a 91 percent chance to make the playoffs and have already won six games - they won six games all of 2025, so the regression from last year has been erased, but with a limp pass rush and no consistent threat at wide receiver, Kansas City might not have 'enough' to seal the deal in the AFC West. Furthermore, their schedule does get a lot harder down the stretch.
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