We're approaching the start of September, which means one thing: football is almost back! It's that time of year when everyone is finalizing their takes for the upcoming season. Today, in no particular order, we are projecting which teams will take the biggest jump from their 2025 record.
Significant year-over-year win total improvements happen every year in the NFL. Just look at this past season: the Chicago Bears went from 5-12 in 2024 to 11-6 in 2025, the Jacksonville Jaguars added nine wins to their 2024 record, and the New England Patriots made a Super Bowl run after winning just four games in the previous year.
These record rebounds don't happen by accident. They happen by making the right offseason changes, along with the natural development of coaches and players, to help their team and ignite a special season. These 5 teams give me confidence in an improved season not only because of the talent on their rosters, but also because of the offseason moves they made.
5 NFL teams ready to outperform their 2025 Record
1. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans fans were given reason to believe when they selected Cam Ward #1 overall in the 2025 draft. Brian Callahan, in his 2nd year at the helm, was expected to develop Cam Ward and deliver an explosive offense, similar to what he did as offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. Instead, by his own QB's admission after a Week 4 loss to the Texans, the Titans were a bad football team in 2025.
"If we keep it a buck right now, we a**."Cam Ward
The Titans finished the year with 3 wins and a -194 point differential, leading to Callahan's firing. Their offense was one of the league's worst units, finishing near the bottom in most offensive categories. While the defense was the better of the two units, it was hardly a strength, finishing 28th in points allowed.
However, much better days lie ahead for Titans fans, as hiring Robert Saleh will bring stability, experience, and a "bring your lunch pail" culture this club desperately needs. Although Saleh's tenure as the New York Jets' head coach was underwhelming, failing to deliver a winning record during his 3.5 years, the respect he commands from his players is undeniable. Star defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons is already taking notice of Saleh's infectious personality and his ability to lead and influence his players.
“To see his energy on the sideline, that's contagious,” Simmons said. “And to have that from a head coach now, I want to celebrate with my coach.”
Simmons anchors the defensive line with offseason additions John Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson, and rookie Keldric Faulk out of Auburn, solidifying the front four. With high-floor veterans on the back seven in linebackers, Cedric Gray and Cody Barton, and Alontae Taylor and Amani Hooker in the secondary, this is a more-than-competent defensive roster that will benefit from Saleh's coaching and scheme.
While the defense should improve significantly with Saleh in charge, the projected offensive improvements are arguably more intriguing. Saleh hired Brian Daboll as his offensive coordinator. Daboll has delivered high-performing offenses in his days as Buffalo's offensive coordinator and in his early days in New York.
Daboll deserves massive credit for developing Josh Allen from a raw prospect from Wyoming into one of the best QB's in the league. Daboll's track record should excite Titans fans, as Cam Ward has drawn stylistic comparisons to Allen.
Offseason additions Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson should make life a lot easier for Ward in his 2nd year. Tate, drafted 4th overall from Ohio State, was seen as the top wide receiver prospect in April's draft and is expected to take on WR1 responsibilities as a rookie. Robinson, who has previously worked with Daboll in New York, brings a veteran presence in the slot.
With a new coaching staff, an improved roster on both sides of the ball, the Titans are poised to at least double, possibly triple their 2025 win total.
2. New York Giants
It's pretty easy to get excited about this New York Giants roster. There is talent everywhere. Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas, Francis Mauigoa, Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, Arvell Reese, and many more.
So how did this team go 4-13 in 2025? Well, I don't think that win total reflects their performance in 2025. The Giants were competitive in most of the games they played and were unlucky in close games.
According to Pro Football Reference's Expected W-L metric, this Giants team should have won over 7 games (7.1 wins to 9.9 losses). This indicates that they're a natural candidate for positive regression. Additionally, New York lost 4 games in 2025 after having a 90 percent+ win probability in the fourth quarter.
2025 was a frustrating year for Giants fans but there are plenty of reasons to be excited and optimistic for the upcoming season.
We have to start with Dart:
Dart was selected 25th overall in last year's draft out of Ole Miss. He was seen as a raw, developmental prospect but one with a lot of upside. Draft analysts praised his arm talent and college production, but the scheme he played in at Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin drew criticism and doubt about his ability to process NFL defenses.
Dart played in 14 games during his rookie season, throwing for 2,272 yards, 15 TD's, and a respectable 63.7 percent completion rate. Those numbers don't necessarily jump off the page, but he showed enough as a rookie to give the Giants a legitimate QB foundation. The young QB, entering his 2nd year, has the supporting cast around him to break out in 2026.
Skattebo was having a fantastic rookie season before an ankle injury in week 8 kept him out for the remainder of the season. Dart and Skattebo combine for one of the most exciting young backfields in the sport.
Star wideout Nabers is on pace to return by Week 1, giving Dart an established #1 to rely on. While the rest of the weaponry is less exciting, there are contributors who will have their role. Veteran Darius Slayton is a reliable deep threat, Calvin Austin is an intriguing slot option, and big-bodied Malachi Fields out of Notre Dame is looking to make an impact as a rookie.
It'll be interesting to see whether Matt Nagy, offensive coordinator and play-caller, can develop Dart and build an offense that plays to his strengths. Nagy had success in his first year as Chicago's head coach and has coached under Andy Reid for years.
This offense is talented, but this defensive unit is loaded, especially along the defensive line. The group features edge rusher in Burns, who finished with 16.5 sacks last season, supremely talented second-year player Carter, and versatile rookie Reese, who should contribute in a variety of ways.
This defense has reliable veterans scattered throughout. DJ Reader at defensive tackle, Kayvon Thibodeaux on the edge, Tremaine Edmunds at linebacker, and Paulson Adebo, Dru Phillips, and Jevon Holland in the secondary.
With Dennard Wilson as the defensive coordinator, bringing the Mike Macdonald scheme to New York, I expect the Giants' defense to be much better in 2026.
We have yet to mention what may be the biggest reason the Giants should significantly improve in 2026: John Harbaugh.
Harbaugh was hired this cycle after an 18-year tenure with the Ravens. Harbaugh posted a 60.9 percent winning percentage in Baltimore and won Super Bowl 47. Harbaugh's final years in Baltimore may have been underwhelming, but his ability to set a winning culture is undeniable and is already resonating with his players.
Cornerback Greg Newsome II described the culture being built in New York, saying,
"Man, it’s tough and gritty. We’re going to work, and I like that.”
Harbaugh's "tough, gritty" culture, combined with the overwhelming talent on this roster, should lead to a much better season in 2026.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Now, this one feels like cheating, or at the very least, extremely low-hanging fruit. As long as Patrick Mahomes is the QB and Andy Reid is the Head Coach and offensive play caller, I will never bet against this Kansas City Chiefs team.
We've become accustomed to seeing the Chiefs lifting Super Bowl Trophies in the Mahomes era. However, the 2025 Chiefs finished with only 6 wins, the lowest total since 2012. Granted, Mahomes tore his ACL in Week 15, but even counting only games where Mahomes started and finished, they had a sub .500 record.
So what went wrong with the 2025 Chiefs? Why the sudden fall-off from 15 wins a year before? And why should we believe they'll be back in 2026?
Sure, the offense lacked explosion, and the run game was lousy, but the Chiefs were also simply very unlucky in 2025.
Their point differential was +34, which should have resulted in a win total of 9.5 according to Pro Football Reference's Expected W-L metric. They uncharacteristically struggled to win close games, going 1-7 in one-score games. Not to mention that their best receiver, Rashee Rice, played only 8 games in 2025, missing the start of the year due to a suspension and the last 2 weeks due to an injury.
Additionally, this defensive unit, led by Steve Spagnuolo, was quietly one of the league's best, finishing 6th in points allowed and 10th in yards allowed. Granted, they traded away premier cornerback Trent McDuffie, but they drafted Mansoor Delane out of LSU to replace him. The defense added talent to the defensive line by signing veteran Khyiris Tonga and drafting Peter Woods from Clemson and R Mason Thomas from Oklahoma.
The underwhelming season wasn't due to a full-team collapse. On the contrary, the Chiefs' offense was the problem (that felt weird to type).
The Kansas City offense finished 21st in points scored, 20th in total yards, 24th in yards per attempt, and 25th in rushing yards. The offense lacked the usual explosion we expect from the Chiefs. That serves as an excellent transition to the Chiefs' shiny new running back.
The Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker, former Seattle Seahawks running back, to a three-year deal. Walker had a career year with the Seahawks, having career highs in yards, yards per carry, and games played. He also finished with 33 total explosive runs (10+ yards).
Chiefs fans will love to hear that, as Kansas City running backs combined for only 22 10+ yard runs. Walker will add the necessary explosion this team needs to return to their typical offensive production.
The Kansas City offensive line coach, Andy Heck, spoke highly of Walker’s unique traits:
"“His balance, his strength, his ability to make guys miss, I think, are going to be special for him.”"Andy Heck
Rice, who is back at training camp with no restrictions after knee surgery, and Eric Bieniemy, who rejoins Kansas City as offensive coordinator after a 3-year break from the team, are among the key returners.
We have yet to mention that Mahomes is on track to start week 1, providing obvious upside and stability to this offense. With Mahomes back, the return of Rice, the addition of Walker, and the re-pairing of Eric Bieniemy, plus a very solid defense, Chiefs fans should be pumped for the season. Kansas City should be back in contention in the 2026 season.
4. Cincnnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025. Joe Burrow missed 9 games, and the defense was terrible.
With Burrow fully recovered from his turf toe injury, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins out wide and Chase Brown in the backfield, Burrow has everything he needs. Barring health for Cincinnati's top guys, this offense should be awesome.
This Cincinnati defense, however, was one of the worst defenses in the league last year, ranking 31st in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed. Although, their offseason moves should provoke optimism in Bengals fans.
The Bengals traded their 1st-round pick for former Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. Lawrence has been one of the best defensive linemen in the league for years now. He did have a down year statistically relative to what we’re used to from Lawrence, but his addition is massive for a Bengals defense that ranked dead last in rushing yards allowed last year.
Offensive tackle Amarius Mims called him “a once-in-a-lifetime player,” adding, “This guy is a game changer. Not only on the defense, he can change the whole team dynamic.”
The defensive line will receive more reinforcements outside of Lawrence, signing veteran interior defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, signing edge rusher Boye Mafe, and drafting Cassius Howell in the second round out of Texas A&M.
This defense is far from perfect, as the linebacking duo of Demetrius Knight Jr. and Barrett Carter ranks toward the bottom of the league heading into this season. However, the secondary provides some reason for optimism, featuring a respectable duo of DJ Turner and Dax Hill, along with a reliable veteran presence at safety in free-agent signing Bryan Cook.
If this defense can get closer to league average and Joe Burrow stays healthy, this Bengals team is poised for a bounce-back season.
5. Dallas Cowboys
Is it finally gonna be their year? Well, it surely wasn't their year last year, as they went 7-9-1, missing out on the postseason. Not only was their record disappointing, but I have no respect for teams that somehow tie a football game (shameful).
This 2025 Dallas Cowboys team was a tale of two sides of the ball. One was great, the other... was very bad. I think most football fans know which is which.
This Cowboys offense, led by QB Dak Prescott, was really good, ranking top 5 in total yards, passing yards, 1st downs, passing TD's, and scoring percentage. Prescott had a fantastic season, throwing for over 4,500 yards and 30 TDs, with a QB rating just under 100. Top targets, Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens, both finished with over 1000 yards receiving in the process.
It wasn't just the passing game that excelled. Javonte Williams had a career year on the ground, rushing for over 1200 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, and 11 TD's, all career highs for the 5-year veteran.
This offense was fantastic in Brian Schottenheimer's first year as head coach and should pick up right where it left off in 2026. Not much more needs to be said about this Cowboys offense. But we need to have a longer conversation about the 2025 Cowboys defense and the moves they made to turn things around in 2026.
This Dallas defense ranked dead last in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, and similarly in other major defensive categories. Matt Eberflus was fired for this dreadful season and was replaced by former Eagles passing game coordinator and defensive backs coach Christian Parker.
Parker is one of the most exciting young coaches in the NFL. At 34, he is the youngest defensive coordinator in franchise history and one of the youngest coordinators in the league. Despite his youth, Parker has experience under some of the most respected defensive coaches in football.
He worked under Vic Fangio for the past 2 years in Philadelphia, contributing to one of the league's best defenses while learning Fangio's scheme. He also worked for Vance Joseph and Ejiro Evero at different times in Denver. He has an impressive resume, but what scheme is Parker looking to bring to Dallas, and how does it fit with his current personnel?
Well, we can assume he'll implement Fangio concepts centered on 2 high-safety coverages while also trying to confuse the QB by switching coverages post-snap. Parker also made clear that he wants to build his scheme around the strengths of his players
"You build it around the players," Parker explained. "Of course, you want to have your core principles and foundational beliefs. But as you kind of move forward in the process, what do your guys do well?"
Parker went on to outline his roster-first approach: "How can you put players in highlighted positions, create one-on-ones for certain guys? How can you protect certain guys?"
So what is the defensive roster looking like for this upcoming season?
It starts up front with Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark, combining for one of the better interior defensive line duos in the league. Both acquired via trade in 2025, Williams and Clark provide balance and a solid floor for the defensive line.
The edge rushers are less established but still intriguing. Rashan Gary signed a 2-year extension with the team, providing a reliable presence. This group also includes 2nd-year player Donovan Ezeiruaku out of Boston College and rookie Malachi Lawrence out of UCF, who will both bring pass-rushing upside.
The secondary has some exciting pieces as well, including rookie Caleb Downs, who may be the most important piece to this defense, given how Philadelphia has deployed Cooper DeJean in his first two years.
Let's not forget: Parker served as the defensive backs coach in Philadelphia. Cooper DeJean has developed into a star for that defense, and Parker deserves a lot of credit, not only for how DeJean has played but also for how he's been used.
DeJean is seen as a chess piece, moving between safety in base defense and slot corner in nickel packages. I expect Parker to use Downs similarly, who has a comparable skill set to DeJean. Both are smart, technically sound, great tacklers, and tough as nails.
Downs was selected 11th overall in this year's draft out of Ohio State. Throughout the process, he was seen as one of the best players in the draft. I expect Downs to be an impact player right away in this defense.
Will 2026 be Dallas' year? If we're talking about lifting their first Super Bowl trophy in 30 years, I'm not so sure. But if Dallas' defense can be somewhat competent and the offense can repeat their production in 2025, this Cowboys team can make some noise in 2026.
For these 5 teams, 2025 was disappointing, for one reason or another. But I believe each team is set up to succeed in 2026, and if the pieces come together, all five could finish with vastly better win totals than they did a year ago.
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