AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: 10-7
The Kansas City Chiefs won all of their one-score games in the 2024 NFL Season, and while they're likely to not do that again, what if they do? It would be the most Chiefs' thing ever for this team to not skip a beat and just stack a metric-ton of wins in 2025. However, the wheels could begin to fall off and the margins for errors could get smaller. They were playing like a 10 or 11-win team in 2024, so perhaps that catches up to them this season.
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 9-8
With the best defense on paper in the NFL and an up-and-coming QB, the Denver Broncos have a path to the AFC West title and a strong 13-win season. They'd likely ride a top-7 offense and defense to the title and see Bo Nix creep up into elite talks. However, Nix could remain the same or even regress and the defense could also fail to adapt in what could be a very disappointing, playoff-less nine-win season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 8-9
I am not sure the Los Angeles Chargers got all that better on paper this offseason, but year two of the Jim Harbaugh era could yield another win for the Bolts in what may be another encouraging season. However, Justin Herbert clearly has a ceiling and really isn't as good as we think. A low-ceiling offense might be their demise in 2025 and prevent them from building on an encouraging 2024 season.
Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 8-9
Floor: 4-13
Having one of the worst rosters in the AFC, the Las Vegas Raiders are a ways away from competing. At best, Geno Smith and Pete Carroll could lead this team to eight wins. Smith could channel some of his 2022 season in the process, but this roster is truly flawed and could bottom-out in 2025 as Smith regresses even more.