The 2025 season was a very strange year for the AFC overall. The playoff field didn't include a number of familiar faces, including Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson.
Entering the 2026 season, most are expecting the star power to return to prominence in the AFC, but the new teams that joined the conference's elite last season also figure to be sticking around. This could be one of the most competitive and drama-filled seasons we've had in recent memory.
As OTAs loom for all teams across the league, we're going to assess all of the changes made this offseason, players getting healthy, roster status, and make our predictions for how many games each team in the AFC will win in 2026, starting from the lowest win projection to the highest.
NFL Predictions: Predicting every AFC team's record for the 2026 season
Miami Dolphins: 3 wins
The worst record in the NFL last season was 3-14 (multiple teams), and that feels about where the Dolphins are going to end up this year. Now, if the Malik Willis signing is a hit, and he's a true game-changer for Miami at that position, then all bets are off. But right now, the Dolphins' over/under is set at a pretty generous 4.5 wins for this season, and that feels right.
This is a rebuilding team, and even the Chargers are accusing them of tanking at this point.
As we've pointed out all offseason, a new GM and a new head coach typically means roster and culture overhaul. And that typically comes at the expense of winning games.
Las Vegas Raiders: 5 wins
The Las Vegas Raiders won three games last season, and they've once again completely reshaped the roster in 2026.
The biggest addition this team made was obviously #1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, who will be the team's future at the quarterback position. But the present at quarterback is Kirk Cousins, and the Raiders have arguably the worst wide receiver room in the entire NFL right now.
We need to see offensive line improvement (which the Raiders also paid for in signing Tyler Linderbaum), as well as marked improvement on the defensive front before we buy the resurgence of the Raiders. Rookie head coach and roster question marks -- even with many improvements made -- usually equals more moral victories than actual ones.
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