AFC West
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 15-2
Floor: 11-6
The Denver Broncos added an explosive playmaker on offense in Jaylen Waddle, and also handed the keys to play-calling to Davis Webb, their offensive coordinator. With the Broncos having won 14 games last year, returning many of those same players from 2025, and sporting a top-3 defense, it's clear that this team could stack a ton of wins yet again.
Even if the offense puts up just a handful more points per game, the product on the field would be a lot better on that side of the ball. The Broncos dealt with 43 drops last year according to Pro Football Reference, which was the second-most in the NFL. Adding Waddle could end up fixing those drop issues, and if that happens, the run game should have more space to produce.
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 9-8
The Los Angeles Chargers added Mike McDaniel this offseason, but did lose Minter to the Ravens head coaching job. Those moves may end up canceling each other out, but with that said, there is a chance that McDaniel does bring the necessary schematic offensive improvements that many of us have wanted to see with the Bolts. If that happens, the Chargers may actually be a threatening unit on that side of the ball, which could bump up their win total from the past two seasons.
But losing Minter could end up having a larger impact than we think, and there isn't a guarantee that the offense makes progress, as the unit has a lot of good, capable players, but no one truly great.
Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 7-10
Perhaps signing Kenneth Walker III in free agency was the missing piece, but Kansas City still has receiver and tight end questions, and the roster, overall, is rather average. The defense lost talent this offseason, and it's simply not a group that scares you outside of the quarterback. With that said, Patrick Mahomes could see his production skyrocket if Walker is a hit, and that could lead the Chiefs back into the playoffs with an 11-6 ceiling.
But if the offense is still struggling on the ground, and the pass-catchers don't hold up their end of the bargin, Kansas City will have another losing record.
Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 7-10
Floor: 3-14
The Las Vegas Raiders could get modest returns from Kirk Cousins and even Fernando Mendoza this season, allowing the team to win more than we think, but if Cousins is, for lack of a better term, washed up, and Mendoza looks like a rookie, there won't be many wins for the Raiders this offseason.
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