What I think - What are the key factors in Thursday Nights AFC East battle between the Bills and Dolphins?
I Think the Bills must weather the early Miami storm(s) – Keep the Game Close Early
Looking at the weather, the Bills may have to adjust their offensive game plan. Thunderstorms and wind are predicted in this Thursday night matchup. Against the Dolphins, the Bills have to stop a trend that has plagued them in recent years, including week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals; the Bills can’t afford to get off to a slow start. The Dolphins' key advantage on offense will also be impacted by the weather. Even so, the Dolphins have more team speed than any other in the NFL and will look to take advantage of the sloppy conditions early.
If the Bills can hold a lead or be within a touchdown going into halftime, they should be able to use their second half adjustments, and their MVP-candidate quarterback, Josh Allen, to hold off the Dolphins in a game where Buffalo is the underdog for the first time since the 2020-2021 season.
I Think the Dolphins have to run the ball, at all, even a little – 75 plus rushing yards
The Dolphins are thought of, rightfully, as the “track team of the NFL.” With Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and running back De’Von Achane all possessing “plus-plus” speed, the Dolphins have a lot of flash and quick strikes in their offense. But the Dolphins are at their best when they run the ball effectively to set up their passing game.
Last week, the Dolphins could not move the ball on the ground. De’Von Achane led the team in carries (10) but Jeff Wilson Jr. led the team in yards (26) as the team amassed an anemic 81 yards on 32 carries for an average of 3.1 per carry. That’s 2 yards a carry less than their league-leading 5.1 average in 2023. Adding injury to insulting numbers, Raheem Mostert, who had 18 rushing touchdowns in 2023, will miss Thursday's tilt and Achane is questionable with an ankle injury.
With the backfield banged up, for the Dolphins to win this game, they must find a way to move the ball on the ground. If the Bills hold the Dolphins to under 75 yards rushing, Tua will be under constant pressure from week 1 star Gregg Rousseau and Von Miller; and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will be able to scheme coverages limiting Waddle and Hill, and the Dolphins' offense overall.
I think Josh Allen has to do Josh Allen things - Multiple passing TDs and 3+ TDS total
In what is "lazy Bills analysis - 101," Josh Allen has to be special for the Buffalo Bills to be good. In Week one, the Bills' signal caller was responsible for 4 touchdowns and one turnover. The Bills' offensive weapons are talented, but they are not special, yet. That's what a franchise quarterback does: he makes good talent great and great talent ... greater? The BIlls have offensive talent. Dalton Kincaid is a potential star at tight end, James Cook showed improved power to go with an elite burst, Keon Coleman is a big and fast wide receiver, and Kahili Shakir is a strong slot receiver.
But the Bills offense needs Josh Allen to be elite. Like all teams with a top-5 quarterback need their quarterback to be elite; Mahomes did it for the Chiefs in week 1 and the Chiefs won. Lamar Jackson did not, by a half of a shoe size, and the Ravens lost. Burrow did not, and the Bengals lost. Against the Cardinals, Allen was special, and he'll need to do it again; to the tune of 3 plus touchdowns, for the Bills to beat the Dolphins on a short week. History is on his side as he has 2 or more touchdown passes in all of his games against the Dolphins in his career and has averaged over 3 touchdowns in his history against the "Fish."
That's what I think will decide this matchup this week against the Dolphins. Putting it all together, I think the Bills will surprise the oddsmakers, who have the Dolphins favored by 1.5 points. I also think there will be less scoring than expected, the game total currently sits at 49.5. The Dolphins will work to establish the run and the Bills will scheme their offense to keep the ball out of Mike McDaniel's dangerous offense. I think the game ends 28-17 for the Bills and they take an early lead in the AFC East race.