Week 5 of the 2024 NFL Season is now upon us, so it's a good time to look at how likely each team is to make the postseason this year. The NFL rolled out a very handy chart back in the 2021 NFL Season, which was when they rolled out the 17-game regular season. The chart outlines playoff chances by record in a 17-game season, and this is how they calculated those percentages:
"To better understand the playoff implications of each win or loss, we used the nflSeedR package in the R Statistical Software to simulate 10,000 17-game NFL seasons based on historical estimates of team strength. Below, we visualize the probabilities for playoff, division, and top-seed hopefuls across the league.NFL Football Operations
The first chart shows the percentage of NFL teams that can expect to make the playoffs at each record (credit to FiveThirtyEight for the idea)."
Right now in the NFL, we have every possible record through four games from 0-4 to 4-0. Let's look at this chart here and see just how likely each team is to make the postseason as we approach Week 5.
4-0, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings (85%)
Here we go. The Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings are both 4-0 and the remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL. They currently have an 85% chance to make the postseason according to this chart from the NFL. The Chiefs not making the postseason would be a total shock, but without Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Isiah Pacheco, KC may have to have their defense pick up the pace a bit.
The Minnesota Vikings are the most complete team in the NFL and Sam Darnold has to be seen as the MVP favorite, so I do like the Vikings' changes even late in the season. They have a roster that can sustain success late in the season, and I do believe Darnold is the real deal.
3-1, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions (67%)
Seven teams in the NFL are 3-1 on the season and have about a two-thirds chance to make the playoffs in the 2024 NFL Season. The two teams that could probably fall off here and not make the playoffs would be the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers, two teams that have lower ceilings due to their QB situations.
You'd have to figure that these teams could all hover anywhere from 9-12 wins in the 2024 NFL Season, and there could be a few division winners from this 3-1 group.
2-2, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts (42%)
A majority of the NFL is in the 2-2 tier, and they have a 42% chance to make the playoffs. This is most definitely the NFL middle class right now. And their season could go in any direction. Getting to 3-2 would improve their chances to 55%, but dropping to 2-3 drops their chances to just 30%.
There is a lot of variation with the playoff chances for teams that will continually hover around .500, and most of these teams may end up doing just that.
1-3, New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins (21%)
Given a 21% chance to make the playoffs, many of these teams shockingly won a game and are not looking good the rest of the way. The Cincinnati Bengals are clearly the most likely team from this bunch to make the postseason in the 2024 NFL Season. However, all of these teams have at least one huge question mark, so until they can get that answered, they aren't going anywhere.
0-4, Jacksonville Jaguars (8%)
So you're telling me there is still a chance? It's not likely at all, but the Jacksonville Jaguars do have an 8% chance to make the postseason. They'd need to win at least three games in a row to start the conversation, but given how bad they have been and how bad Trevor Lawrence has been, I doubt this team could even hit six wins, and that might be generous.
It's been a season to forget for the Jaguars.