With how much the NFL salary cap tends to increase, the salaries of the players' also take a huge jump. Could the league soon have a $100 million per year QB? Kyle Odegard of sportscasting.com seems to think that it's not that far away.
QB salaries have reached $55M AAV, but that will soon be child's play.
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 5, 2024
The first $100M-per-year QB could arrive near the end of the decade, and here are the five most likely candidates to get there first: https://t.co/LHCY1J2uGH pic.twitter.com/UmKveby8ZA
This was quite a fun read, and it really makes you wonder just how soon the NFL could have a $100 million QB. Below you can see the table that they used to forecast when the first $100 million QB could happen:
Projected top QB salary per year based on 23% of salary cap at 8% annual increase
Year | Top QB Salary | Projected Cap Number |
|---|---|---|
2025 | $63.44M | $275.83M |
2026 | $68.52M | $297.90M |
2027 | $74.00M | $321.73M |
2028 | $79.92M | $347.47M |
2029 | $86.31M | $375.27M |
2030 | $93.22M | $405.29M |
2031 | $100.67M | $437.71M |
Projecting a typical 8% increase in salary cap, SportsCasting projects that the first $100 million quarterback could happen as early as the 2031 NFL Season, which is about seven years from now. Man, just imagine the day that the notification hits that a QB signs for a four-year, $400 million extension.
The number almost does not seem believable at all, but the way things are going, it can definitely happen. Here are some of their key highlights:
"A quarterback is projected to sign a contract with an average annual salary of $100 million per year by 2031Kyle Odegard
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is the favorite to be the first $100 million quarterback in the NFL
Stroud has been given +800 hypothetical odds, followed by Bills quarterback Josh Allen at +850 and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at +950
The NFL quarterback market is showing no signs of slowing down, as Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love each signed for $53 million or more per year in the past couple of months.
Those numbers seem outlandish now, but they will be child’s play once the end of the decade beckons.
By our projections, a quarterback will sign for an average of $100 million per season by 2031, and maybe even 2030."
Here is their reasoning for the salary cap increase:
"The average year-over-year salary cap increase is 7.1% since its implementation 30 years ago, including an average rise of 6.9% over the past decade, even with the negative-growth COVID year.Kyle Odegard
Based on the likelihood of a revenue windfall from the move to an 18-game season, and after consulting with salary cap experts, our projection uses an 8% year-over-year increase.
Top quarterback salaries have taken up between 21.5% and 24.5% of the cap in recent years, which is why we are using 23% to project the top QB salary each season."
Wow. Just wow. This is a ton to unpack. Right now, the NFL is getting closer and closer to the first ever $60 million per year quarterback, which could happen this coming season. Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott could be the next in line for a huge deal, and with all of Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Jordan Love making $55 million per season, Prescott might be able to hit the $60 million mark.
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy is due for a contract extension at the end of the 2024 NFL Season, and he could be another player to easily cross the $60 million number. Beyond that, though, it's anyone's guess, as teams sometimes like to extend their star players who are already on huge deals. The Miami Dolphins just did this with WR Tyreek Hill.
The Philadelphia Eagles also did it earlier this offseason with WR AJ Brown. Teams will look to get ahead of the market by doing this, as with every passing contract, the price tags only get higher and higher. Could it be true that the first $100 million QB is about six or seven years away?