4. Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens struggled to stay healthy in the beginning part of the 2025 season, and, if not for a Tyler Loop missed field goal in Week 18, the Ravens would have done enough - just barely - to win the AFC North.
This team isn't that far off and should return to their normal form in 2026. With a defensive mastermind as the head coach in Jesse Minter, the Ravens should be able to see improvement on that side of the ball, and regressing to the mean with all of the injuries should also provide a boost.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville losing Devin Lloyd and Travis Etienne in free agency is going to hurt, and given that the Texans clearly improved big-time this offseason, it would not be a shock to see the Jaguars losing the AFC South title in 2026.
Still, though, this head coach and quarterback both seem to be quite good at their respective jobs. The Jaguars might be a 'high floor' team in 2026 - being able to win 10-ish games still feels likely, but given the overall state of the roster and Houston making a leap, the Jaguars could fall into a Wild Card spot.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
What have the Los Angeles Chargers done to make us believe that they can win the AFC West in 2025? Losing Minter is going to hurt, and even the offensive line didn't improve as much as many expected. On paper, this team is nearly the same as they were last year.
Los Angeles is still going to finish around 10-12 wins, but a lack of a high-end move is going to again limit this team's chances at a top playoff seed.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals overhauled the defense in series of stellar moves that needed to happen. This team has missed the playoffs three years in a row now for a reason, so going from no playoffs to a top playoff seed might not be likely.
On paper, though, this team is plenty good enough to finish, let's say, 10-7 and get back into the postseason for the first time since 2022.
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