T.Y. Hilton to face underrated unit with high expectations
Indianapolis Colts star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton caught the same number of passes (82) in 2013 as he did last season, but he was even more impressive this past season due to his playmaking ability as Andrew Luck‘s clear-cut No. 1 option in the Colts high-powered passing attack. Per Advanced Football Analytics, Hilton was third in the league with 10.3 yards per target, and the two receivers ahead of him (DeSean Jackson and Kenny Stills) both had considerably fewere targets. With 16.4 yards per reception, Hilton was one of the NFL’s most effective deep threats in the regular season, and he also did a fantastic job of moving the chains for the Colts offense with 63 first downs, seventh-best in the league.
After suffering a hamstring injury, Hilton seems to be healthy, returning to a full practice on Wednesday, and he’ll go up against a Bengals secondary that is better than the surface stats show. Although they allowed a mediocre 6.2 net yards per attempt during the regular season, the Bengals picked off 20 passes compared to just 18 touchdowns allowed, as they were one of the NFL’s elite secondaries when it came to limiting scores and forcing turnovers. That’s impressive enough, but analytics provided by Football Outsiders present an even brighter picture of this team’s secondary.
No team was better in the league against No. 1 receivers than the Bengals, who are also among the top three teams in the NFL at covering other types of wideouts. FO’s seventh-best pass defense overall, the Bengals were better than any other secondary at defending short routes and were also a top-ten unit against deeper stuff. Leon Hall, George Iloka, and Reggie Nelson are notable names, especially Hall, but the Bengals secondary doesn’t have a true star.
Instead, they are solid from top-to-bottom and are always excellent at covering as a team, which is why they are so good at defending different types of receivers at all levels of the field. Four players on their defense finished with at least ten passes defended, and that is a sterling example of a well-rounded defensive backfield.
Hilton presents a formidable challenge for this secondary, because even the best defenses can have a hard time containing an explosive weapon like him, especially since very few DBs have the speed or quickness to cover him. Like the best small wideouts who operate as the top options on their offense, Hilton has the quickness to dust defenders on intermediate routes, but he also has the long speed and ball skills to absolutely gash the opposition. Only five receivers had more receiving yards than his 1,345, and his 17 receptions of at least 25 yards were the best in the regular season.
The Bengals did a good job of limiting big plays during the regular season, as they allowed just 24 passing plays of at least 25 yards. However, they did run into trouble against Hilton in their uncharacteristic blowout loss to the Bengals, as he caught seven passes for 107 yards. Interestingly enough, that was after he put up over 200 yards on the Houston Texans and before he turned six receptions into 155 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers burn-prone secondary. An injury has prevented Hilton from putting together a similar hot streak, but he did have ten receptions for 150 yards and two touchdowns a few weeks ago against the Cleveland Browns.
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With an average of about 90 receiving yards per game in the regular season, T.Y. Hilton is coming off of a career year, and it would be a victory for the Bengals to hold him below 100 yards, considering Hilton is a beast who only seems to elevate his game in the playoffs (we all remember his insane game last year against the Kansas City Chiefs).
The Bengals will have to keep an eye on other weapons on the Colts offense in Dwayne Allen, Reggie Wayne, and Donte Moncrief, but they are well-equipped to handle Luck and Co. due to the steady nature of their secondary, which has quietly been one of the best ten units in the NFL this season. They won’t wow you with any true blue-chip players, but they have depth and lack a true weakness. The Bengals earned plenty of national attention with a four-interception game of Peyton Manning on Monday Night Football, and that should be enough to make Luck sweat a little bit.
Of course, the Colts can certainly counter the Bengals with a true blue-chip player in Hilton, who has blossomed into, perhaps, one of the best ten receivers in the league. There’s no doubt that he’s a top-15 player at the position, and there’s also no doubt that he’s a top-five playmaker at the position with a sky-high yards per target. If Hilton can get enough help around him from the likes of Wayne, Allen, and Moncrief, then he could find himself enough wiggle room to make some defining plays.
It isn’t easy to burn the Bengals secondary, but, as Antonio Brown showed us in Week 17 with seven catches for 128 yards and a TD, a No. 1 receiver who rises to the occasion can be the difference. Like Brown, Hilton has a quarterback who can consistently put him in excellent situations, and it will be fun to watch a smart, explosive offense face off against a steady, experienced defense capable of making teams pay for any mistakes. Even so, Hilton beat them the first time around, and we know that he has the talent to deliver a second time in a more critical game.