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New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul decision as difficult as it gets

By Kevin Parvizi

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The New York Giants have several notable impending free agents on the defensive side of the ball such as touted safety Antrel Rolle, but Jason Pierre-Paul is easily the biggest impending free agent to watch for on the Giants. JPP is one of the NFL’s most athletic defensive ends, and his ability to put pressure on the quarterback and play elite run defense would make him a huge asset on the open market. As such, JPP will command a massive contract from the Giants, and it isn’t like his $15 million franchise tag is cheap either.

Pierre-Paul is coming off of his best season since his insane 16.5-sack season in 2011, as he was a big reason for the Giants Super Bowl-winning campaign. The Giants didn’t even make the playoffs last season, but JPP was the star of a defensive line that include two other impressive players in second-year standout Johnathan Hankins and underrated free agent signing Robert Ayers, who had one particularly memorable game against the Dallas Cowboys last year.

But neither of those players can match JPP in the talent department, as the former USF standout might be the most impressive physical specimen among the 4-3 DEs in the NFL today (notice I specified 4-3, since we all know J.J. Watt is tops among all defensive linemen when it comes to physical tools).

After a combined 8.5 sacks in 2012 and 2013, Pierre-Paul got back on track in the sacks department with 12.5, including seven in his final five games; he finished the season with a streak of five games with at least one sack. That’s one way to show motivation in a contract year, though it has led some to criticize him for being inconsistent, and there’s no doubt that his sack totals in 2012 and 2013 were disappointing.

That said, Pierre-Paul wasn’t exactly bad in either of those two seasons, since his run defense often goes underrated in the midst of all the talk about his sack totals. This is a guy who consistently redirects runs, and he recorded 77 tackles this past season. His 27 tackles in 2013 show that he legitimately disappointed in 2013, but he did record 67 tackles in 2012. Per Pro Football Focus, JPP had the sixth-best run stop% among all 4-3 DEs last season, and he was second in that stat in 2012, which goes to show you just how much of an impact he makes in run defense.

My main criticism of JPP’s game is his inability to be a consistent outlet of pressure, since he’s better at finishing plays than he has at constantly disrupting the timing of the opposing passing game. He had one of PFF’s lowest pass rushing productivities in his 11-game 2013 season, and that was the nadir of his inconsistency as a pass rusher. Throughout his career, he’s been above-average when it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, but he doesn’t stand out in that regard like Cameron Wake or Michael Bennett.

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Jason Pierre-Paul is more of a playmaker than a purely dominant pass rusher, like Cliff Avril, meaning that he’s better at filling up the stat sheet or making tackles in run defense than at racking up pressures. For example, according to Advanced Football Analytics, Pierre-Paul was second among DEs last season behind J.J. Watt in success count, which is the number of “successful” plays a player contributed to the defense.

This led JPP to be second to Watt in WPA and EPA among all defensive ends. He was tied for second at the position with six passes defended, he was one of eight players to force three fumbles, he led all DEs in solo tackles, and he was fifth at the position with 21 QB hits.

Based on the stats he accrued in 2014, Pierre-Paul will hit the market at the perfect time, and that’s not even taking into account the fact that he is 6’5″, 278-pound beast of a 26-year-old who still has upside to plenty of teams, especially those enthralled by his 16.5-sack season.

All of these traits and stats have certainly helped the New York Giants, and that’s what makes the JPP decision so difficult for Jerry Reese and Co. They’ve seen first-hand how valuable he can be to a defense, especially since he played an integral role in their Super Bowl-winning season. This is a guy who can impact every single facet of the game, and his youth makes him more valuable…and more expensive.

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The Giants also know that they aren’t exactly hurting on the defensive line outside of JPP, even though they lost their other starting DE last offseason in Justin Tuck. Robert Ayers was a big success in his first season, Damontre Moore has upside, and Hankins anchors a solid interior. But the problem is that even though the Giants have other useful pieces on the line, they can’t necessarily count on Moore to have a third-year breakout, even if they are high on him. They also can’t count on Ayers being the team’s main threat at DE, since we’ve never seen him succeed in that role.

As inconsistent as Pierre-Paul’s sack totals and pressure counts have been (and they honestly haven’t been that inconsistent, it’s just that the weaknesses of any great player are exacerbated by default), the fact of the matter is that he’s consistently been a real force in run defense and is one of the NFL’s most impressive playmakers on the defensive side of the ball; last year’s numbers don’t seem like a fluke to me. The Giants will have to balance two types of risk here: the risk of overpaying Pierre-Paul and the risk of banking on Ayers and Moore too much if they let him go.

Sep 29, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back runs the ball as New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (90) attempts the tackle during the first half of the game against the New York Giants at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 31-7. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, it might come down to how set Pierre-Paul is on hitting the open market, especially since it’s hard to see him getting slapped with a $15 million tag, though ESPN NFL Nation’s Dan Graziano wrote that this is indeed an option.

The tag depends on how confident the Giants feel in Ayers and Moore as starting defensive ends, because $15 million is worth the price to guarantee keeping a top DE if the team doesn’t feel that they have a suitable replacement duo for the inevitable loss of production if JPP leaves.

But since JPP is 26, the Giants would probably like to keep him around for another few years, though it all comes down to how much they are willing to pay him.

It’s what makes this such a difficult decision, because both Ayers and Moore are still virtual unknowns. Well, we know Ayers is solid, but we don’t know if he’s a top DE despite his solid play in back-to-back seasons with two different clubs.

More importantly, Moore is a complete unknown, and their faith in him could determine whether or not they decide to give Pierre-Paul an offer that is up there with what he would receive on the open market; I’m sure some bullish team will throw plenty of money at him, since his positives outweigh the negatives (slight inconsistency being the main one).

Next: Where do the Giants rank among the best franchises in history?

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