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Kenny Stills clearly shouldn’t be part of New Orleans Saints firesale

By Kevin Parvizi

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The New Orleans Saints 7-9 season has seemingly turned the team into disarray this offseason, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that the team is looking for a “complete retool” of their once-proud roster. It’s crazy to think that the Saints were viewed Super Bowl contenders prior to the 2014 season, and now they have just traded Jimmy Graham and Ben Grubbs, though the latter trade comes as little surprise coming off of the worst year of his career.

Fowler reported that only Drew Brees and promising second-year wide receiver Brandin Cooks seem to be safe, which means that NBC’s Dianna Marie Russini’s report earlier today that the Saints are shopping Kenny Stills is almost certainly true.

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The news of Still hitting the trading block is great for teams trying to add a talented, high-upside wideout who is a No. 3 option at worst, but I wouldn’t be happy at all if I were a Saints fan. Dealing Stills doesn’t seem to make any sense, since he is coming off of the best season of his career, has made consistent progress in his first two seasons, will be just 23 when his 2015 campaign opens up, and makes almost no money until his contract runs out in 2017.

Perhaps he is having a contract dispute a la Keenan Lewis, and perhaps the Saints are looking to snag a top pick for him on the trading block, since he could be a valuable piece if multiple teams show interest in him. I can think of several big teams off the top of my head (the New England Patriots, another Seattle Seahawks deal, and the Philadelphia Eagles) that could make sense as landing spots for Stills, and virtually any team in need of a deep threat should at least take a look at him.

It’s interesting that out of all the players who could be mentioned in trade rumors on the Saints, Stills was the leaked name following the Grubbs deal to the Kansas City Chiefs. There could be something brewing in the background here, but it’s hard to believe that anything can undermine Stills’s trade value at this point.

According to Advanced Football Analytics, Stills was second in the NFL behind Washington Redskins ace deep threat DeSean Jackson in yards per target, as he averaged 11.2 YPT. He would be a perfect fit for the Eagles vertical passing attack, giving Sam Bradford an electrifying wideout who can also clear out space for Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and even running back DeMarco Murray. Of course, there are other fits around the league, but Stills’s ability to win downfield more efficiently than almost every other receiver would make him an especially valuable asset for Chip Kelly.

Even though a sample size of 83 targets is small and Stills benefited from the likes of Graham, Marques Colston, and Cooks over the middle, his 72.1% success rate despite an average of 14.8 yards per reception cannot be overlooked. He caught 75.9% of everything thrown at him, and you just don’t see that kind of efficiency very often. In fact, he was one of the league leaders in catch rate (perhaps first, though not all qualifiers are shown), which is especially impressive since Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham Jr. were the only other receivers to have at least a 70% catch rate in 2014.

Per Pro Football Focus, Stills was so good on vertical routes that he had a 64.3% catch rate on targets that went at least 20 yards down the field and only Andrew Hawkins was within 10% of him (you have to extend the list of qualifiers in order to find both players, though).

Last season, the New Orleans Saints used the former Oklahoma standout more often, upgrading his targets from 50 to 83, and they used him on deep routes less often. According to Advanced Football Analytics, half of Stills’s targets came at least 15 yards downfield in 2013, but that number went down to about one-third last season. In 2013, Stills emerged as a first-year wonder on those deep passes, notching 12.8 yards per target off of a catch rate just under 65% and 20.0 yards per reception.

As we saw against the burn-prone Pittsburgh Steelers secondary last season, Kenny Stills can shred defenses that spend too much time focusing on the weapons over the middle of the field. It would be a risk to expect too much out of him in the passing game, but he has plenty of upside to him, based on the incredible numbers he’s produced through his first 133 career regular season targets.

Stills was also quietly consistent last season, because he had just two games with less than three receptions and had at least five receptions and 65 receiving yards in five of the finals six games. It’s concerning to see that the Saints are even considering trading him, because they should view him as a huge part of their offense. With Graham gone, Stills is arguably their second-best pass-catcher, and you could make a very compelling argument that he’s better than Cooks and Marques Colston (for now, I’d barely put Cooks above him).

Oct 19, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Kenny Stills (84) against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Lions defeated the Saints 24-23. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

I think it’s interesting to see that the Saints are seemingly completely against the idea of dealing Cooks, whereas they are reportedly cool with sending Stills off.

Cooks was a first-round pick last year and is an exceptional playmaker after the catch who could end up terrorizing defenses over the middle, but it’s entirely possible that he’s not the next Victor Cruz-type talent and can’t be a No. 1 receiver.

I think Stills and Cooks have similar upside despite their completely different playing styles, and it seems like the Saints are glossing over Stills’s production and youth. I mean, he’s just 23 and he put up nasty rate stats in 2014.

The counterargument is that this is all a red flag, because if the Saints are so willing to trade away Stills after already dealing Graham, then maybe they view Stills’s numbers as a product of the offense.

The Saints mainly ran short stuff last year, and they usually use Stills as their deep guy, so maybe they felt that, again, Graham, Cooks, and the others made life easy for Stills, who only had 83 targets. Perhaps the Saints view Stills as merely a role player at receiver, and they are trading him in the hopes that someone overpays.

Now, the counter to the counterargument is the fact that the Saints used Stills more often last season, as well as the fact that a 7-9 organization that is blowing up its team clearly isn’t infallible.

Stills was excellent in his slightly increased role, and he expanded his route tree. Is it enough to make him more than a No. 3 wideout? I’m not sure, but teams like the Eagles should see what it will take to find out.

At worst, they’ll get an extremely efficient deep threat who is just 23 and an extremely small financial investment, meaning that the Saints can’t give money as an excuse for this deal. If they really want to trade Stills, then either he did something to piss them off, they want picks, or they don’t know what they’re doing.

For what it’s worth, I absolutely cannot see the New Orleans Saints incentive to deal Stills, so I believe he will be a member of their remade team next season. He’s a player the Saints simply can’t afford to trade, and they simply can’t afford to under-use him either; Stills needs to be an even bigger part of the offense next year, because there’s no harm in giving an 11.2 YPT, 23-year-old WR more than 83 targets.

Next: Are the Saints answering these 5 questions?

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