Detroit Lions: Eric Ebron and the second-year leap

The New Orleans Saints have been busy hyping up Jimmy Graham‘s replacement Josh Hill this offseason, while their former offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, has been one of the many members of the Detroit Lions organization trumping up second-year tight end Eric Ebron. Last year’s tenth overall pick, Ebron has been hard at work this offseason, which has been called “impressive” this offseason by head coach Jim Caldwell, and has been working out with franchise QB Matthew Stafford. (Note: Check out how the word “bust” is in the URL of the second article…)

By all accounts, Ebron came into the NFL as a raw prospect, and his lack of production as a rookie should have surprised absolutely nobody. So if you are calling Ebron a disappointment, then your criticism is ridiculously premature. That would be the case at almost any position and in almost any position, but that’s especially true if you are criticizing a raw rookie tight end.

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Look, it’s a hard position to transition to. New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski had 42 receptions as a rookie before exploding to 90 and 1,327 as a sophomore, Graham had 31 as a rookie before turning in 99 in his second season, and Philadelphia Eagles versatile standout Zach Ertz had a ho-hum rookie year with 469 receiving yards before having 702 receiving yards last season (and he could have had even more if he received more than just 70 targets).

Honestly, nobody should have expected more out of Ebron as a rookie, though it is still fair to say that he struggled compared to the average tight end. Per Pro Football Focus, Ebron’s questionable hands bit him in his first season, as he dropped four passes. He also failed to make the most out of his opportunities to stretch the field a bit, catching just one of eight targets of at least 20 yards. Ebron finished the 2014 season with a dreadful 52.1% catch rate, 5.2 yards per target, a mediocre 9.9 yards per reception, and just 25 receptions with one touchdown.

Those aren’t strong numbers at all, but I’m not concerned about any of that. Maybe I should be, but Ebron was given such a minor role in the offense with just 48 targets, meaning that, per Advanced Football Analytics, just 8.1% of the Lions pass attempts went to him. Among tight ends, that put him below the likes of Andrew Quarless and Levine Toilolo, which means that the Lions knew they weren’t going to get much out of him.

Based on the fact that Ebron was 45th among tight ends in snaps played (per PFF), received less than 30 snaps in each of the team’s first three games, and gained snaps as the season wore on , the Lions clearly didn’t envision him as a first-year standout. They didn’t make him a big part of the offense, and they made that clear very early on in the season.

So if the Lions didn’t expect anything out of their top-ten pick and are busy praising him this offseason, it would seem especially premature to criticize him. Of course, the discussion centers around whether or not he’ll be a second-year breakout player, but the Lions, like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with fellow top 2014 TE prospect Austin Seferian-Jenkins, appear very confident in the UNC product’s abilities.

What stands out to me is the fact that Eric Ebron, who was a very raw blocker in coverage and was barely used in that capacity as a rookie, has been working hard on his craft this offseason. We keep hearing reports about members of the organization waxing poetic about his work this offseason, and that was before the news broke that he has been working out with Stafford. With raw, uber-talented/explosive/athletic/tools-y prospects like Ebron, work ethic becomes a huge deal in order for the player to get the most out of their tools; Ebron appears to be intent on doing this.

He’ll have to improve as a blocker, but the Lions and the rest of us (since, you know, some of us play fantasy football) are probably more concerned about his pass-catching contributions. Blocking is key, but come on, the Lions obviously drafted him tenth last year for his upside and ability in the passing game. That’s where dough is made (see: Thomas, Julius).

Moreover, Ebron is third in the pecking order behind the elite duo of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, so there’s plenty of production to obtain behind those two stalwarts if Ebron can establish himself as a more consistent option (5.2 yards per target doesn’t cut it).

He’s working with Stafford, running routes, and getting stronger, but we’ll see if it all materializes into a second-year leap. Nobody is expecting the kind of leaps Gronk and Graham made, but if he can do what Ertz did for the Eagles last year, then the Detroit Lions could be in excellent shape. After all, they have one of the NFL’s three best WR duos on their hands.

Dec 21, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Detroit Lions tight end Eric Ebron (85) against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Lions defeated the Bears 20-14. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

I hope nobody holds his draft stock against him when evaluating him, because that doesn’t matter. Who cares if the Lions took him with the tenth overall pick?

When discussing a player, it’s important to forget about their draft pedigree and simply look at their body of work rather than saying, “Was he worth it?” or even comparing him to other prospects at the position in that class.

For example, I liked ASJ more than Ebron coming out of college, but that doesn’t matter. I mean, he did even less as a rookie with just 21 receptions, but that matters less. What matters is that the Lions took Ebron, he has high upside, and he’s put in enough work this offseason to make him a realistic second-year breakout candidate.

The numbers from last season don’t work in his favor, but remember that Greg Olsen averaged 6.1 YPT as a rookie and Julius Thomas didn’t exist in his first season. Ebron’s numbers were poor in 2014, but most of us figured that would be the case, including the Lions.

We don’t have enough intel to accurately predict a second-year breakout from Ebron either way, and that’s largely because, unlike Gronk and Graham, he wasn’t efficient in his limited opps as a rookie, though he does have the ability to make a Jordan Cameron-esque jump (5.7 YPT on 20 targets in 2012 before 80 catches in 2013).

Next: Could the Lions roll the dice with this WR?

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