Odell Beckham Jr. 2015 Fantasy Football Profile

New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. blew up the NFL in an unprecedented manner as a rookie, leading the league with 108.8 receiving yards per game despite missing his entire first offseason with a mysterious hamstring injury. For many rookies, that would have made their first season a lost cause, but Beckham Jr. is a Madden cover athlete who caught 70.0% of everything thrown at him; he’s no mere mortal.

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While Beckham Jr.’s injury last season has caused some to be concerned about his outlook in 2015, others are left wondering what he’ll be able to accomplish as a follow-up to his 91/1,305/12 stat line in 12 games. If he were healthy for all 16 games last season, Beckham would have put up a 121/1,741/16 line, which is just beyond ridiculous.

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Only Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb had, as per Pro Football Focus, a higher WR Rating when thrown at (basically, QB Rating for receivers), and ODB was at an obvious disadvantage. Not only is Aaron Rodgers better than Eli Manning, but Cobb and Nelson got to work with each other with the beastly Eddie Lacy in the backfield.

We all know that “the sky is the limit” for Beckham in 2015, but the interesting thing is that there are people who are skeptical for perfectly valid reasons. Not everyone is willing to buy into just one season of greatness, because people are wary of one-hit wonders. Additionally, there are worries that he could suffer another injury in 2015, except, this time, he’ll miss regular season games instead of preseason outings.

These concerns have caused Beckham Jr. to check in with the fourth-highest ADP among wide receivers, as fantasy owners in standard leagues generally prefer to select Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas over the rookie sensation out of LSU.

The reasoning behind this makes sense. All three of those wideouts are entrenched, elite options who are prototypical “X” receivers. They will score touchdowns at a high rate, generate big plays, and consistently deliver 100-yard performances. More importantly, they are on teams with quarterbacks who were among the five best at the position for much of the 2014 season, and all of them have better offensive lines than the Giants, giving their receivers more time to get open downfield.

For as great as these three receivers are, Beckham Jr. simply played at a higher level than all of them last season. Only Bryant was as prolific at scoring touchdowns (about one per game), and, again, nobody averaged more receiving yards than Beckham. Despite missing four games last season and being limited early upon his return from the hamstring injury, he still finished fifth in scoring among wide receivers. With 16.4 fantasy points per game in ESPN leagues, OBJ would have put up roughly 263 fantasy points over 16 games, putting him in first by 12 points over Brown last year.

If he misses another four games in 2014, then we could still safely expect him to be the fifth-leading scorer among wide receivers. He could lose out on targets to Victor Cruz, but I could see Cruz as being someone who takes pressure off of ODB, rather than someone who eats into his 11 targets per game significantly. With Randle improving and Manning playing solid football, Beckham’s own improvements as a receiver with added experience could allow him to be even more prolific.

Basically, Odell Beckham Jr. is an elite deep threat, dependable possession-mover who can get open with ease in the short game, touchdown-score, explosive YAC beast, and sure-handed receiver blended into one body. Thomas and Bryant are safer options, but I’m not sure why you would take either of them over Beckham Jr. Bryant doesn’t have much competition for targets, sure, but Thomas has Emmanuel Sanders to deal with and will be in an even more run-heavy offense; skepticism on him in fantasy might be more relevant than on OBJ.

There is only one wide receiver whom I would rather own in fantasy leagues in 2015 than Beckham Jr., and that man is Antonio Brown, whose jaw-dropping numbers in each of the past two seasons have been simply unprecedented. Only one other receiver in NFL history has had back-to-back seasons with at least 110 receptions, 1,400 yards, and eight touchdowns, and that man is the Jerry Rice.

And with Le’Veon Bell suspended for two games, Brown’s value has only skyrocketed (only Maurkice Pouncey‘s injury and the combined efforts of Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant can cause any sort of regression from a player who has missed just three games in the past four years).

Brown is the best option due to his elite play and consistency in each of the past two seasons, but Beckham Jr. still has the most upside. His tape at LSU and as a rookie for the Giants show that he is unequivocally a legitimate once-in-a-generation talent at the wide receiver position, and I’ve never seen a receiver dominate in all phases of the game like Beckham Jr. (not even Steve Smith, who has scored 12 touchdowns just once in his entire career).

Next: Is OBJ The Best Receiver In The NFL?

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