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Buffalo Bills: Who is next man up if LeSean McCoy is out?

By Kevin Parvizi

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The Buffalo Bills don’t have the most ideal quarterback situation out there, but they aren’t out of the discussion as playoff contenders with the exciting Tyrod Taylor set to lead the offense with LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Charles Clay, Robert Woods, and Percy Harvin as the stalwarts surrounding him.

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Questions at quarterback and on the offensive line could make their elite defense and talent at the skill positions irrelevant, and they are counting on McCoy, whom they signed to an even bigger deal after acquiring him from the Philadelphia Eagles for standout linebacker Kiko Alonso, to be the clear focal point of the offense.

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McCoy’s status for Week 1 is up in the air, and while it is too early to make any predictions about his availability for the opener, it is worth noting that the Bills are concerned. According to ESPN NFL Nation’s Mike Rodak, Bills head coach Rex Ryan “has some doubts” about the star RB’s ability to play against the Indianapolis Colts, but Ryan did say that he is “cautiously optimistic”.

My money would be on McCoy to play in the opener, especially since the Bills would like to take full advantage of the Colts run defense, which looks like their biggest weakness on paper as we head into the season. With Arthur Jones a lock to miss the opener and in doubt for the entire 2015 season, the Bills will look to run it against a defense that allowed 4.3 yards per carry last season.

However, if McCoy is unable to play, then the Bills will look to Anthony Dixon, Bryce Brown, and rookie Karlos Williams to pick up the slack. Fred Jackson‘s release, McCoy’s injury, and Williams’s somewhat-scary illness have locked in Brown and Dixon on the roster, but it’s anyone’s guess as to how the carries would break down if McCoy doesn’t play.

Of Brown and Dixon, it is the former who clearly brings more upside to the table. This is a guy whose yards per carry averages have always been strong, and he has the talent to bring a spark to the table. Meanwhile, Dixon is a plodding type, but he’s the safer of the two veteran options and is less prone to frustrating fumbles or other negative plays.

Neither of those two backs is as intriguing as Williams, whose availability for the Colts game went from being “up-in-the-air” to “expected” to this tweet from Rodak, stating that Ryan confirmed his fifth-round pick “will be ready” for the Bills regular season opener.

Facing the Colts presents a stern challenge for the Bills, but based on how well their defense played against the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning near the end of the 2014 season, they have the talent to make life difficult for Andrew Luck and his receivers. But because it will so hard for even the Buffalo Bills elite defense to shut down all of Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett, T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, and Dwayne Allen, the Bills offense will have to put up at least some points on the board.

Dec 14, 2014; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back Bryce Brown (35) jumps to avoid a tackle by Green Bay Packers cornerback Tramon Williams (38) during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Buffalo beat Green Bay 21-13. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor can make things happen with his legs, and, again, has an impressive array of options to throw it to. But the bread-and-butter of Greg Roman and Ryan’s offense will be in the backfield, and they are trusting McCoy to be a 300-carry guy. So if McCoy isn’t able to play with Taylor under pressure in his first start, then the other running backs will have to take advantage of the favorable matchup.

At 6’1″, 230 pounds with sub-4.5 wheels, Williams offers the type of size and speed that could prove to be difficult for the Colts to handle. We saw how the completely unknown Jonas Gray tore up the Colts last season, and perhaps Williams, who was regarded as one of the rawest running backs in this year’s loaded class, could have similar success.

The question is, how healthy is Williams? He’s on most people’s fantasy radar as a long-term sleeper this season should anything more serious befall McCoy in 2015, but Brown and Dixon look poised to get more carries. The Bills seem to love Williams, who played better in practices than in his lone preseason game (just 2.9 yards per carry, though he did have 63 yards from scrimmage), but most people would expect them to ease a player who is a young, long-term project.

That said, Williams’s health going into Week 1 is worth monitoring, because he could be an X-Factor if McCoy is unable to play. If neither back is healthy enough to make an impact against Indianapolis, then Brown immediately becomes the man to watch; he has the natural talent and explosiveness to make the Colts sweat a little bit, even if he’ll probably make Ryan sweat even more due to his chronic fumbling.

If McCoy plays, the question becomes, how many touches will he get? I’d set the over/under at 20.

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