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NFL Predictions Week 5: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

By Dan Salem

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After a month of football, the NFL lines are now skewing against you. Do you go with winners or lots of points? These are your Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for NFL Predictions Week 5. Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Check out more of the brothers in Seesaw Sports Debate on BuzzChomp. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

The NFL standings seem to be rounding into shape heading past the quarter poll, but that doesn’t mean there is no more value to glean off the Vegas lines. Of course, with bye weeks spreading Week 5 (four teams off for the first time this year), there are fewer options to choose from.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 at Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

The line for the AFC North battle between Cleveland and Baltimore opened with the Ravens as seven-point favorites. It was quickly bet down, but I think it’s still worth grabbing the Browns at half a point less.

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While Cleveland is no spring chicken here, Baltimore is a mess of unparalleled proportions on the offensive end. Already without Breshad Perriman, Steve Smith is now out this week as well. Joe Flacco simply has no weapons to throw the ball to. Justin Forsett should find running room against a leaky Browns run defense, but it doesn’t matter if the Ravens can’t make any plays down the field.

Ravens fans are crossing their fingers that Crockett Gillmore returns to the lineup…which says just about all you need to know.

In the second game, I’m doubling up on North teams. It’s always risky to bet against Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, but that offense was a mess Monday night against the Lions. They were fortunate to win the ballgame. Against Cincinnati, that type of lackluster play won’t cut it. The Bengals are actually good.

It’s too soon to say for sure if Cincy is one of the four best teams in football, but it is playing well enough to win by a couple at home, even against a powerhouse defense like the Seahawks. A Marshawn Lynch return may move this line a tad as the week progresses, but it would only move in the Bengals favor at that point.

Oct 4, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver

Mohamed Sanu

(12) wide receiver

Brandon Tate

(19) and cornerback

Josh Shaw

(26) celebrate during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second half at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati defeated Kansas City 36-21. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

DAN:

It’s surprising how quickly the cream rose to the top of the NFL, and equally impressive how fast the coal sunk so deep that team’s are already firing coaches. Its given Vegas the upper hand in setting the lines, but I still found it easy this week to snatch out the best picks from a lot of close matchups.

I can’t disagree with your two picks. I’m just really afraid of Cleveland right now. I feel like they have yet to play their worst football, but Baltimore hasn’t offered up any confidence in their abilities either. As for Cincinnati, I’m pleasantly surprised they have continued their regular season dominance from the last two seasons.

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at Detroit Lions
Dallas Cowboys +9 vs New England Patriots

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The St. Louis Rams are not as bad as we thought they were, but the Arizona Cardinals are certainly not as good as they looked to begin the year either. Hence the outcome of week four, an Arizona loss. But Detroit has looked downright inept this season, and almost beating a seemingly average Seahawks team is not an accomplishment.

The Cardinals are better than the Lions. They are easily a touchdown better, so giving less than three points on the road is putting way too much weight on Detroit’s near victory Monday night in Seattle. Arizona wins this game easily; their defense it too good.

In our other matchup an injured Cowboys lineup must take on a New England team rolling out of its bye week. The Patriots are not likely to lose off the bye, but they are playing on the road, down in Dallas against a pretty good Cowboys team. Dallas has a lot to prove, and keeps overcoming injury after injury, holding fort so to speak. Getting nine points at home is a gift too sweet to pass up.

The odds makers think New England wins by more than ten points. With Dallas’ ability to run the football, despite its injuries on offense, they will keep this game close. Take the points and ride the Cowboys this Sunday.

Dan Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spinzone. He’s also Lead Editor, Staff Writer, and Featured Vlogger at BuzzChomp, and a New York Jets Analyst for Pro Football Spot. Follow him on Twitter, Facebook, Google+, or Instagram.

Todd Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spinzone. He’s also a Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp, a Featured Columnist at Bleacher Report, and an Analyst for Tipster Labs, among others. Follow him on Twitter.

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