Pundits are championing Mark Ingram as a top fantasy football running back in 2016, but why? His stats are mediocre and he rarely plays a full season. What’s going on here?
Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.
TODD:
Explain to me how or why New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram is a top 20 fantasy player and top ten running back for the 2016 NFL season. I don’t want to besmirch the man’s name, but I have no confidence in Ingram being that valuable a player this season in real life or in the world of fantasy football.
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Ingram is entering his sixth season in the league, all with the Saints. Through five seasons, he has never once reached even 1,000 rushing yards, a reasonable and attainable bar for adequate running back play these days. He has played in 16 games in a season just one time. He has topped 200 carries in a season just one time.
He has topped 4.3 yards per carry on at least 100 carries just one time. He has caught 30 balls in a season just one time. He has passed six total touchdowns just one time. And by the way, this wasn’t one magical season for Ingram where all of these pieces came together. Instead, he has sprinkled in little portions of successful football seemingly randomly throughout his career. I’m not sure if that’s better or worse than the alternative, but either way, it’s not a great barometer of success.
The other thing playing against Ingram outside of all his own personal shortcomings, is the steady and precipitous decline of the New Orleans offensive line. It wasn’t too long ago that the Saints had a dominating front five filled with Pro Bowlers. Ingram didn’t exactly take advantage of that line, but things should be even harder to come by as the talent deteriorates in front of him and Drew Brees. The interior specifically could be a real issue in 2016, especially if Andrus Peat doesn’t step up his game in his second season.
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There was no one really of note to vulture carries from Ingram last year; it was just a smattering of Tim Hightower, Khiry Robinson and others. A similar level of depth exists behind Ingram for 2016, but a lack of a real number two has not helped Ingram be a bonafide every-down back in the past anyway. That has never been his calling card. He simply isn’t reliable or consistently healthy enough.
So what am I missing, if anything? Is it just a case of people holding out hope that 2016 is finally the year for everything to come together for Ingram? This may be his last chance with Brees set to hit free agency and the Saints on the precipice of a rebuild.
DAN:
If you hadn’t laid out all of those numbers besmirching Ingram’s fairly good name, I would have said he’s been an excellent running back, especially in fantasy football. You wove a precise web of anti-Ingram sentiment…perhaps to discourage competitors from drafting him at all this season? Regardless, you’re completely off base in terms of Ingram’s fantasy value. Real life is another story.
The Saints and their fans should be worried about Ingram’s durability. Without a reliable backup, they are simply hoping he can play a full season. Its only happened once in his five year career, so don’t hold your breath. New Orleans did draft a running back, yet a seventh round pick is unlikely to provide any sort of immediate impact on offense. Ingram must stay healthy and this could once again be trouble. However, what we are really discussing is fantasy football, and Ingram is definitely a top running back option this season.
There are only 32 starting running backs to choose from and at least a third are guaranteed to split time with another player. Even former studs like Matt Forte will be sharing the football in 2016 with a teammate on the regular. The same can not be said of Mark Ingram. He is the number one option in New Orleans, with no one projected to take reps away or touchdowns from his hands. This is a hot commodity in today’s NFL.
I know what you’re thinking, who cares if he’s the number one guy if he is certain to miss a few weeks. I’d rather draft a running back for 13 of 17 weeks, knowing he’s shouldering the load, than a player who steps on the field 16 times but doesn’t produce for half of them. Every season the dominant running backs change, but Ingram has been very consistent his last two years. The trend is evident and he’s a clear RB2 option, if not higher.
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In twelve games last season Ingram recorded over 1150 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. In 2014 over the course of thirteen games he recorded over 1100 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns. He’s averaged over four yards a carry each of his last three seasons. With so many running backs presenting an unknown scenario for their 2016 production, I feel safe relying on Ingram in the New Orleans’ offense. That is why he is rated so high.