Fantasy Football 2016: Randall Cobb over Jordy Nelson

The Green Bay Packers have two great receivers, but who’d you rather have in Fantasy Football 2016? Its risk versus reward as Randall Cobb tops Jordy Nelson this season.

Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

It is fantasy football drafting season! The NFL season begins in less than a month, which means these weeks are the time to draft in fantasy football leagues. Though there is quite a debate at the top of draft boards this year, there are also tons of intriguing options throughout the middle rounds. A number of these decisions will come down to roster alignment and how you choose to build your team. However, the most pressing questions come down to options between players at the same position with similar skill sets who may even be on the same NFL team. It is hard to split hairs, which brings us to a game of “who’d you rather?”

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Sticking with wide receiver, since it is arguably the most highly contested fantasy position this season, our next debate is between teammates on the Green Bay Packers: Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

On the surface, Nelson seems like the easy selection. After all, when he was healthy, Nelson was one of the best talents in the sport. From 2011 through 2014, it’s easy to make the case that Nelson was the most prolific receiver in the game. Then 2015 happened, and Nelson lost the whole season. Green Bay lost their season as well to a certain degree. Its ceiling was altered without Nelson on the outside.

Not coincidentally, one of those Packers who had a down year was Randall Cobb. The slight slot man wasn’t built to take a defense’s best. He is instead adept at exploiting mismatches and creating havoc. In 2014, he did that the best it could be done.

So now that Nelson will be back, is he the guaranteed top guy again? Does the injury worry you at all? Is Cobb better set up to succeed with defenses again focusing on Nelson? Obviously both men have succeeded together in the past and can do so again in 2016, but am I crazy or does Cobb seem like the safer and better selection here?

Most drafts have Nelson going much earlier than Cobb, essentially slotting the former back where he belonged before the knee injury took place. Of course, not everyone is on board. The expert opinion at Fantasy Pros has Nelson going anywhere from the first round to 40th overall, the latter being behind where Cobb is averaging.

I certainly wouldn’t feel comfortable taking Cobb as high as Nelson’s earliest draft slot, but at somewhere in the middle, I think I would find myself leaning toward the man who played all of last year and is looking to exploit slow linebackers and safeties. In terms of average draft position, I certainly like Cobb in the fourth more than Nelson in the second.

Sep 14, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (18) and wide receiver Jordy Nelson (87) celebrate after the game against the New York Jets at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /

DAN:

It’s funny how perception is often much greater than reality. This is the case with Nelson and Cobb circa 2014. Both players had exceptional seasons. Both players would like to forget 2015 ever happened. Nelson missed every game, while Cobb saw his targets unchanged, yet his production plummeted to catastrophic levels for fantasy football.

Where does this leave us for the new season? Since value must be factored into the equation come draft day, its Randall Cobb all the way. Nelson is being overvalued to insane degrees. He’s coming off a major knee injury and only had three 1000-yard seasons in his entire eight-year career. Now I’m not saying Nelson won’t be very good once again, but even if he’s back at 100% and playing like he did in 2014, he’s still unlikely to match his numbers and is still not any better than Cobb.

I’ll stick to comparing the 2014 seasons, since Cobb missed most of the year in 2013, and Nelson missed time the year before that. Two seasons ago both players excelled, putting up the best years of their respective careers. Nelson shined with 151 targets, 98 receptions and 1519 yards receiving, all career bests. He added 13 touchdowns as well, just two shy of his pinnacle set in 2011. He was excellent, but so was Cobb, who dominated with 126 targets, 91 receptions and 1287 yards. Add his 12 touchdowns, and these stat lines look eerily similar.

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It will be hard for both players to repeat their success of 2014, but Cobb has a leg up in the competition. He’s due to bounce back from a down year in 2015. and Nelson’s return almost guarantees it. Nelson will also do well, but who knows to what extent without seeing him in action of any kind? Take Cobb. He’s the better value pick, the lower risk and holds a ceiling nearly as high as his teammate’s.

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