Who’s going to finish on top of the AFC South? A great quarterback or the best defense? The lines have been set and the AFC South over/under win totals are out. Which team’s record looks bogus? NFL Predictions 2016.
Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.
TODD:
We are hitting every division in football, dissecting the early over/under numbers to see where the mistakes and bargains are. We have already covered the AFC’s North and East. It is now time for the South.
Here is how the South shakes out according to Bovada lines:
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Indianapolis Colts 9.5
Houston Texans 8.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 7.5
Tennessee Titans 5.5
The AFC South over/unders are about what you would expect from the past few seasons. Unfortunately for Vegas, the football on the field is no longer representative of that recent past. The Indianapolis Colts are no longer the king of this division, and not only is 9.5 too high, but I would be genuinely surprised if they finished above .500.
Outside of Andrew Luck, it’s conceivable that Indianapolis has the worst roster in this division. Now Luck is pretty darn good when healthy, and we all expect him to be healthy this season, but how much can the dude carry? How is this Colts team better than Houston? How are they better than what the Jaguars have pieced together through the draft and free agency?
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The rest of the lines here in the South intrigue me, but Indy is the one that baffles me. Am I missing something? This isn’t the NBA. Andrew Luck isn’t going to be able to garner 10 wins on his own. For good measure, the Colts have to play Pittsburgh and the New York Jets as their two “extra” games this season. Can we mark those both as losses right now or should we at least wait until the season starts?
DAN:
Its almost as if Vegas decided that last season was an aberration for this division. The team with the best quarterback must be first and the team with the best defense is second. That’s how football works, except it doesn’t work that way at all. I take issue with three of the four over/under win totals. The only one that holds its water is the Titans at 5.5 wins. This team likely wins six or more games, but to bet on them to do so would be crazy. I have no sense of Marcus Mariota in year two, or their defense. That’s a solid line.
The other three lines are each off by a game. I’d put Indianapolis at 8.5 wins, the Texans at 9.5 wins and Jacksonville at 8.5 wins. Without a solid track record of actually finishing over .500, I can see how the Jaguars would be a tough bet to win nine games, so I’ll set their initial line aside. I disagree, but its not outlandish. Both Houston and Indianapolis are bad lines, however. Since you piled on the Colts, I’ll take the Texans.
Houston won this division last season on the back of its defense. That defense remains in tact and by all accounts, the Houston offense is now better. I like Brock Osweiler. He proved himself in Denver last season and has inherited a very similar football team. Sure, he could struggle, but the Texans’ defense already knows how to pick up the slack. They did so last season. This is still the best team in the division and they are winning double digits. Who is going to stop them? Certainly not the Colts, who have way too many holes outside of the quarterback position.
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If Andrew Luck can win the Colts ten games, then J.J. Watt can win the Texans ten games of his own. Indy isn’t the same team that Luck had success with early in his career. But Houston keeps improving. You’re spot on with bashing the Indianapolis line, making the Houston line go up proportionately. That’s a solid NFL Predictions 2016.