2016 NFL Predictions: NFC North Over/Under Win Totals

Everyone believes in the top teams of the NFC North, but the Vegas lines for Over/Under win totals are whack. Which are bogus and what teams are destined to fall short? 2016 NFL Predictions.

Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

The NFL over/under lines are not always perfect. Going division by division and examining where the errors lie during the preseason, we already covered the entire AFC. Now it is on to the NFC, where we will start with the NFC North.

Here is the North’s predicted order according to Bovada:

Green Bay Packers 10.5
Minnesota Vikings 9.5
Chicago Bears 7.5
Detroit Lions 7

Do you have any issues with these over/unders? My biggest gripe is with the order. Why is Chicago better than Detroit? Can anyone explain that to me? Last year, the Lions finished with a better record, a better point differential and defeated the Bears both times the two teams met.

I would feel much more comfortable taking Detroit over 7.5 than Chicago. The two teams should be flipped. I would even go so far as to lower the Bears’ line. I’m not taking the Bears over 7. It should be 6.5. This team will probably go 1-5 within the division again, putting them far behind the eight ball.

The only reason I can see dropping Detroit into last place here is the retirement of Calvin Johnson. Otherwise, it would seem to have the upper hand on Chicago with only random exceptions, such as at linebacker. And though Johnson’s departure is huge, the Lions have the pieces to replace his production.

I like Golden Tate and Marvin Jones to both have good years as the starting wide receivers. Plus, tight end Eric Ebron always seems to be on the precipice of breaking out. Maybe this is the big opportunity he needed. Detroit isn’t a great football team, but it is soundly a third-place football team.

Oct 25, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) catches the ball during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. The Vikings won 28-19. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports /

DAN:

The NFC is a tough conference to read this season. Outside of the top teams, the same top teams from last year, it’s really hard to say who will grab eight or nine wins. This is particularly true in the NFC North. Neither Chicago or Detroit is winning eight or nine times, mainly because Green Bay and Minnesota are still really good.

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I can’t argue with the lines for the Packers and Vikings. My preference would be to tweak them by a half game, but that’s semantics. Jordy Nelson is back so Green Bay has the edge over Minnesota. I can live with that logic. What I can’t live with is the apparent hype for the Chicago Bears.

Raising the Detroit line is hard for me to get on board with. Betting them to either win six or eight times is exactly where this team belongs, until they prove otherwise.

But what have the Bears done to seemingly vault themselves into the ranks of mediocrity? Is Jay Cutler really good again? Does he all of a sudden want to keep playing in Chicago, despite all signs pointing towards his exit in the not too distant future? Did the Bears get a great defense that I don’t know about?

Chicago drafted heavily for defense this year, meaning the unit is likely a season away from showing its true talent. Add in the fact that the Bears’ schedule is pretty rough, considering they only won six games last season, and the 2016 Bears will certainly struggle to improve upon their record from a year ago.

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Give me Chicago at six wins, six and a half max. That is a bet to consider. But the current line is way too high. These aren’t the Bears of old.

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