Atlanta Falcons success could hinge on Larry Fitzgerald Injury

With No. 2 cornerback Robert Alford out for a few weeks, the Atlanta Falcons pass defense has to be the league’s least competent unit right now, but they could receive some help if the Arizona Cardinals don’t have Larry Fitzgerald out there on Sunday. Fitzgerald was able to practice today and is listed questionable as a true game-time call, but there’s plenty of optimism that he will play after he gave some positive comments regarding his status. That said, he was optimistic about playing in Week 12, but he was easily ruled out after suffering the Grade 2 MCL sprain in Week 12.

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Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians stated that Fitzgerald will not be limited if he plays, so this is an all-or-nothing approach, and this could actually benefit the Falcons. If the Cardinals don’t feel confident enough in Fitzgerald’s knee (his injury is normally about a two or three-week injury), then I’m sure Arians will play it safe and sit him out, which will leave the Falcons depleted defense with just Michael Floyd and John Brown to worry about. That isn’t really a “just”- especially not for a unit as subpar as the Falcons secondary- but it is a big relief.

The Seattle Seahawks are obviously a much different beast, but the Cardinals performance against the Legion of Boom last week sheds some light on how important Fitzgerald is to this offense. Floyd has disappointed this season, and he was completely taken out of the game by the elite Seahawks secondary with Fitzgerald out. And without Fitzgerald to take pressure off of Floyd and to move the chains on a consistent basis for Drew Stanton, the Cardinals offense stagnated. Fitzgerald is also averaging over 14 yards per reception, so he’s doing plenty of field-stretching as the team’s No. 1 receiver, too.

Although the Atlanta Falcons are allowing an unseemly 7.7 net yards per attempt, which is the most in the NFL, they do have one incredibly bright spot in their defensive backfield in second-year Washington product Desmond Trufant, who continues to show off shutdown quality. The Falcons, sadly, don’t use him in that capacity, and I’m not sure Alford’s injury will spur them to do that in the interim. But if Fitzgerald is out, then that would be the perfect opportunity to put Trufant on the opposition’s clear No. 1 guy, Floyd, in an effort to take the Cardinals most potent threat out of the game. If Fitzgerald plays, then one of either him or Floyd (and it would likely be on a rotating basis, as in whichever player isn’t matched up against Trufant on that given snap) will have a light matchup on their hands.

No. 1 receivers hold a certain level of cache in this game, but there’s nothing more dangerous than a top-notch 1-2 punch at the position. And while Floyd isn’t producing at a high level this season, he’s still one of the more dangerous weapons in the game. After all, he has four TD catches this season, and he is impressively averaging 17.5 yards per reception. That should be a scary number to the Falcons safeties, and their secondary wouldn’t be able to focus on him if they are simultaneously worried about Fitzgerald, who is enjoying his best year in a couple of seasons. Floyd hasn’t gone off since notching 119 and 114-yard days in Week 1 and Week 3, and he would find himself in a difficult position without Fitzgerald helping him. John Brown is a capable playmaker, but doesn’t have the same type of consistency or fear factor as Fitzgerald, who is an elite route-runner with equally impressive hands and contested catch ability.

Looking at Football Outsider’s DVOA stats, the Atlanta Falcons are clearly much worse at stopping No. 2 receivers, and I would much rather face the Floyd-Brown combo than the Fitzgerald-Floyd-Brown trio, especially since Fitzgerald is the best and most consistent of the three. I tentatively expect to see Fitzgerald out there on Sunday, but this is definitely a situation to check-up on multiple times on Sunday.

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