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Andre Johnson situation was a long time coming

By Kevin Parvizi

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It’s always hard to see a franchise split from an icon, and these splits are almost always messy, such as last year’s parting of ways between Carolina Panthers and Steve Smith, who is the team’s best player in franchise history. This offseason, another star wide receiver who is the team’s franchise icon, Andre Johnson, is set to depart, though we’ll see if there are significant hard feelings involved in those move.

The Houston Chronicle’s John McClain reported that the Texans have granted Johnson permission to be traded after he was unwilling to take a lesser role with the team. DeAndre Hopkins was taken in the first round of the draft in 2012 for a reason, and he blossomed into a true No. 1 receiver last season, clearly trumping Johnson in every major statistic at the position. Johnson isn’t much worse than Hopkins and the statistical differences between them are exaggerated, but he will be 34 before the season starts and isn’t nearly as explosive as the ascending Clemson product.

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Moreover, the “reduced role” McClain cites points to a paycut, which is something Johnson said he would be fine with taking, though I have a feeling the Texans had something closer to a “salary slash” in mind. Johnson would make $21.5 million over the next two seasons under his current contract, and the Texans decided that it wouldn’t be worth it to pay a No. 2 receiver that kind of money.

I honestly thought there would be a peaceful resolution between both sides, especially since the Texans improved significantly last season after being the worst team in the league. Despite not having a legitimate starting quarterback, the Texans managed to challenge for a playoff spot behind stalwarts like J.J. Watt, impending free agent CB Kareem Jackson, Arian Foster, Hopkins, and, yes, Johnson.

This all came after Johnson expressed his frustration with the Texans for only drafting Tom Savage, as opposed to nabbing, say, Derek Carr in the second round of the draft. QB is still a big need for Houston, but it seems like they are favoring a second chance for Ryan Mallett, who was injured shortly after being named the starter last season.

There are a lot of moving parts here, but Johnson, per Advanced Football Analytics, averaged just 6.5 yards per target last season, while Hopkins was among the league leaders with over 10 YPT.

While Johnson was still solid last season, the excuse that his targets were less efficient since he’s the clear-cut No. 1 receiver is no longer a viable explanation for the sub-60% catch rate, since he averaged just 11 yards per reception and only had 18 more targets than Hopkins, who was incredibly explosive with about 16 yards per reception and a better catch rate despite the more robust YPR.

The rumors linking Johnson to contenders like the New England Patriots are unsurprising, and it would be fitting for him to end his career with a Super Bowl ring after an illustrious career that has included five 100-catch seasons to this point despite the chronically lousy QB play he’s had to deal with (except for a few strong seasons from Matt Schaub before his implosion).

While it would make plenty of sense for a contender to go after him, that would only happen if Johnson is cut, which is the most likely scenario anyway. The Houston Texans have made it clear that they aren’t interested in spending $21.5 million on Johnson for good-but-not-great play over the next two seasons, and I don’t even think a bad, WR-needy team would want to pay that sum. As for a contender, some teams, such as the Patriots, couldn’t afford anywhere close to that even if they wanted to.

For as surprising as this news is to most fans, this trade/release (again, the latter scenario is far more likely given Johnson’s massive contract) news has been a long time coming. There were already issues between both sides last season before they were ultimately smoothed over because Johnson had no leverage against the team, but it’s all different this time around. Now, the Texans don’t want Johnson back at that price.

Dec 21, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson (80) during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not that the Texans flat-out don’t want Andre Johnson, because they know just how good he still is and just how valuable a guy with his route-running savvy and size is for a team that doesn’t have a true franchise QB yet.

That said, it would be unwise for them to spend more than $10 million in base salary in each of the next two seasons, and they simply can’t afford to give him more targets when Hopkins has established himself as a better player.

Johnson had more receptions, but Hopkins had a higher catch rate, way more yards per target, more touchdowns, more yards per reception, and over 300 more receiving yards.

This is hard news for Texans fans to swallow, especially since Johnson is still a productive player. That said, he’s no longer a better player than Hopkins, and he clearly isn’t worth his current contract.

He said he would be willing to take a paycut, but he probably wasn’t willing to cut enough cap to help the Texans out, especially since, again, he’s not their best receiver anymore.

Maybe this will all blow over and Johnson won’t leave Houston, but it seems like the team is prepared to save some money and hand the keys to Hopkins, who could establish himself as a clear-cut, top-ten receiver next season if all goes as planned.

Remember, this guy averaged 16.5 yards per reception and still caught over 60% of everything thrown at him, and his primary QB was Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yeah, that’s pretty darn good.

Johnson is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the greatest receivers in NFL history, so hopefully he’ll be able to cap off his incredible career with a ring and an elite quarterback. Realistically, nobody will trade for him, and while that will hurt him financially, that’s honestly increases his chances of heading to a contender.

As for the Texans, they desperately need to snag themselves a good No. 2 receiver and maybe a third guy, since they have no depth at the position and will have a gaping hole in the starting lineup without Johnson on the field.

Next: Texans must keep K-Jax

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