2015 NFL Draft: Predicting trades for a Top 5 pick

As needy teams scramble to draft one of two quarterbacks with a Top 5 pick, someone’s getting traded. The 2015 NFL Draft is sure to excite, but who’s trading their pick and which team is bold enough to pull the trigger? Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL TD Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream and debate the NFL and sports.

TODD:

According to Bryan Fischer at NFL.com, reporter Ian Rapoport dropped a bit of knowledge at the league annual meeting on Monday, saying “Do not be surprised if the Redskins are open for business – more than open – to dealing that pick [number five overall].”

The real intrigue with this comes down to who below Washington will be begging to move up to grab Marcus Mariota. The New York Jets sit at six and need a quarterback. If they like Mariota, do they risk waiting or trade up a spot if he’s sitting there at five?

St. Louis at ten might also be in the running. It obviously just traded for a quarterback in Nick Foles, but it remains to be seen if the Rams view him as a franchise guy or more of a stopgap player. Lord knows the Eagles didn’t view him as the present or future.

After that, there are some middle-round teams who may want a quarterback but may not have enough to move up that far in the draft. Moving 10-15 spots in the third round costs peanuts compared to moving up from, say, 16 to five like the Houston Texans would have to do.

All this is of course for naught if quarterbacks are taken 1-2 by Tampa Bay and Tennessee, respectively. But with the overall talent at the top of the draft, there is a strong possibility one quarterback slips past.

Feb 21, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston (right) and Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota do an interview on the NFL Network after finishing their workout during the 2015 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Washington’s own past deal to move up to grab Robert Griffin III may be a blueprint for a deal this year. That 2012 move has been something approaching a failure for the Skins. Should that dissuade teams from moving up now? Mariota, according to scouts and analysts at least, is actually a shakier pro prospect than they thought Griffin was at the time.

Teams in need of quarterbacks do crazy things. That will never change unless league rules shift to lessen the position’s importance. If Mariota is available at the fifth pick and Washington dangles the option out there, I say someone bites for sure. The question is who?

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DAN:

I find it interesting that you outright assume as fact that Jameis Winston will be selected by the time pick five rolls around. It’s highly likely and a safe assumption to make, but as you noted, there is a bevy of talent worthy of a top five pick and quarterback track records are not great when being chosen so high.

In 2014, Blake Bortles went third, the only quarterback taken in the top ten. No quarterbacks were taken in the top ten in 2013. Three were selected in 2012 with Andrew Luck going first, Griffin going second, and Ryan Tannehill going eighth overall. Three more were chosen in 2011, as Cam Newton went first, Jake Locker went eighth, and Blaine Gabbert went tenth. Sam Bradford was first overall in 2010, the only quarterback selected. My point being, teams that need quarterbacks will draft quarterbacks, but only half pan out.

Of the eight players I mentioned going in the top ten of their respective drafts, I can credit five of them as being reasonably successful, but only two as having played at that coveted high level for more than one season.

There is also an injury caveat, as both RG III and Bradford have been derailed quite a bit. Ultimately, I’m opening this debate up to the top ten picks, aware that its harder and harder to trade up as you get closer to pick number one, but more aware that both Winston and Mariota are valued at or above the Ryan Tannehill level, a player included in the group having found success.

Feb 21, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; (From left to right) quarterbacks Bryce Petty, Marcus Mariota, Nicholas Marshall, Jameis Winston, and Jerry Lovelocke pose for a photo after finishing their workout during the 2015 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Two quarterbacks and only one will be successful, at least according to math and stats and stuff. And of the teams selecting in the top ten of the 2015 draft, only two are happy with their current quarterback. The Falcons at eight and the Giants at nine have stability at the position.

Only two teams outside the top ten have any shot at moving up high enough to grab Mariota or Winston. Both the Saints and Chargers could trade their currently successful quarterbacks, older players, in order to draft a younger quarterback. This would completely change the game, but I’m not ruling it out.

Back to reality and the top five.Tampa Bay and Tennessee seem too smart to part with pick one or two, yet both the Jaguars and Raiders are fair game at three and four. I know Washington ‘likes’ its quarterbacks, but they too could trade RG III to move up a spot or two.

I believe St. Louis stays put at ten, while the Jets and Bears do everything possible to slide into the top five. Chicago again is a team with a veteran quarterback they’d love to move. How about Jay Cutler the Oakland Raider?

Its near impossible to detail specific trades, because the amount of picks and money involved is too much to speculate. But mark it down, there will be a trade into the top five. It will be noteworthy and multiple quarterbacks will be involved.

Next: 2015 Mock Draft - Free Agency Addition

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