NFL Spin Zone
Fansided

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Who is ‘the true Doug Martin’?

By Kevin Parvizi

facebooktwitterreddit

One of the top running back prospects in the 2015 NFL Draft is a well-rounded Boise State product by the name of Jay Ajayi, and he’s received plenty of interest around the league as a potential three-down back and alternative to more touted prospects Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. A few years ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers snagged a first-round RB from Boise State by the name of Doug Martin after an aggressive draft that included safety Mark Barron, who was traded to the St. Louis Rams last season, and one of the best defensive players in the game in linebacker Lavonte David.

There’s no doubt that David has been a smashing success for the Bucs, just as there’s no doubt that the Bucs first pick in that draft, Barron, failed to meet expectations during his time in Tampa Bay. Evaluating Martin, however, is much more difficult, because he’s been on both ends of the spectrum at points in his career.

More from Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As a rookie, Martin was a resounding success, and he looked set to be one of the top five backs in the NFL after earning the nickname “Muscle Hamster” on the strength of a whopping 1,454 yards in his first season in the league. A workhorse, he racked up 319 carries and 49 receptions that season, totaling over 1,900 yards from scrimmage with 4.6 yards per carry, 11 rushing touchdowns, and a receiving touchdown for good measure.

It wasn’t like his stats were bloated either, because, per Pro Football Focus, 1,005 of his rushing yards came after first contact; that’s an insane 3.2 yards after contact per carry. Throw in 53 missed tackles, included an astounding 12 in his miracle 251-yard and four-TD performance (with 10.0 yards per carry) in Week 9 against the Oakland Raiders, and you have a guy who was already an unquestionably elite rusher.

The hype was real, and we were all expecting another fantastic year from Martin in 2013, though we warned ourselves not to expect too much from a young player. However, whenever a first-year back puts up over 1,000 yards after first contact in a season with one 251-yard performance to really get us hooked, then it’s hard not to expect even more.

Unfortunately, Martin gave the Buccaneers nothing, as the team suffered through a nightmarish season, as they watched one of their most valuable assets plummet. Martin averaged just 3.6 yards per carry before bowing out of the season with an injury after just six games.

Lovie Smith and the new coaching staff pretty much put Martin on notice by drafting Matt Forte comp Charles Sims and telling reporters that they were high on the West Virginia product’s ability, with the implication being that they wanted a three-down back due to their skepticism regarding Martin’s ability to bounce back after a truly forgettable 2013 season.

Sadly, Martin’s 2014 season was just as bad, as he negligibly improved his yards per carry average to 3.7 and became an afterthought in the passing game with just 13 receptions in 11 appearances. Worse yet was his inability to generate yards after contact, which was his initial calling card as a rookie and helped him earn his “Muscle Hamster” moniker. But that trademark ability to absorb contact was nowhere to be seen last season, as he averaged just 2.16 yards after contact per carry.

Earlier this month, via the Tampa Tribune’s Roy Cummings, Smith stated that “we haven’t seen the true Doug Martin yet,” which is weird statement without qualifying “we”. Does “we” mean the Buccaneers ever since the new regime took over, or does it mean “we” as in everyone watching the NFL? Because if Smith’s statement is meant as praise stating that we haven’t seen the ability that Martin can bring to the table, then it’s an insult, because Martin was truly brilliant as a rookie. Remember, he was one of the best ten backs in the NFL that season.

But for our purposes, the question, “Who is the true Doug Martin?” is basically a question of where he lies between his ridiculously good rookie season and his pedestrian (to put it kindly) 2013 and 2014 seasons.

What I can tell you is that it’s difficult for a player to go from being an elite player at his position as a rookie to being a below replacement-level player in his second and third seasons, so Martin overachieved as a rookie, grossly underachieved in his last two seasons, or it’s a complex combination of both of these things.

Dec 28, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin (22) runs past New Orleans Saints free safety Pierre Warren (42)during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Martin was placed on the trading block last season and still isn’t safe in Tampa Bay, but I think it’s important for everyone to be constantly aware of the circumstances surrounding the Buccaneers organization. I mean, Martin’s 2013 season can’t be evaluated fairly at all, because he was injured, playing behind a woeful line, and had no passing game to help him out as he tried to churn out yardage behind a line that suffered an even bigger drop-off than Martin did.

Speaking of line and quarterback play, both of those negatives reared their ugly heads under a new regime that failed in their aggressive upgrades up front. Of course, the counterpoint here is that Bobby Rainey had no trouble out-performing Martin in the yards per carry department over the past two seasons, though the obvious caveat here is that his averages of 3.8 and 4.3 yards per carry aren’t anything worth praising either.

I know it’s easy to say this, but I wonder if we don’t recognize just how far Martin has fallen because it’s so easy to forget how dominant his numbers were across the board as a rookie. He completely torched expectations by being a hard-to-tackle workhorse who made an impact on every down, couldn’t stop scoring, and had the potential to explode for a memorable game.

Nov 30, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin (22) stiffs arms Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Terence Newman (23) as he runs the ball in for a touchdown during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Sadly, it’s come to the point where “Who is the real Martin?” isn’t even the most pressing question anymore, because the most important question at this point is, “Does he have a future with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at all?”

Smith’s comments can be read as a positive, but it’s more likely that it’s a negative. Because if the “we” means the Bucs new regime and that they haven’t seen his true ability, then they might feel pressed to cut their losses after already contemplating trading him last season before holding off (likely because nobody really wanted him). They seem to like Sims and Rainey, and while neither of them have Martin’s talent, they might not want to spend anymore time waiting to see if the “true” Martin is the version that ran for over 1,400 yards and set the fantasy football world ablaze.

Just 26, there’s still time for Martin to prove that he isn’t a one-year wonder, especially since his one year came so quickly and was so wonderful that it seems almost illogical for him to have collapsed so quickly. Perhaps a change of scenery and a new line (and perhaps a new scheme, coaching staff, and better QB) would give him the confidence needed to revive his career, because he seemed special that first season he took the field for the Buccaneers.

Oct 5, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin (22) against the New Orleans Saints during the first quarter of a game at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

There’s hope left for Martin, because even though his 2014 season was filled with mediocre performances to the point where he had 50 rushing yards in just three of his games, he showed glimpses of his past brilliance in two games against NFC South rivals.

In Week 15, he put up 96 yards on just 14 carries against the tough Carolina Panthers front seven before sagging down to an embarrassing 17 yards on just ten carries against the woeful Green Bay Packers run D.

But he finished the season on a high note with his lone 100-yard performance of the year, as he needed just 19 carries to put up 108 yards on a rocky New Orleans Saints run defense.

These two games provide a glimmer of hope for Martin going into the 2015 season, but if he can’t significantly improve next season, then the “true” Doug Martin might be the version that averages under 2.2 yards after contact per carry with well under 4.0 YPC and not the guy who put up 3.2 and 4.6 as a rookie.

I have a hard time believing that those rookie numbers are a fluke, and if Martin doesn’t bounce back in Tampa Bay and finds himself playing elsewhere in 2016 (or earlier), then I have a feeling he’ll re-establish himself as an effective back.

I mean, he doesn’t need to be as dominant as he was in 2012 to be effective, which is another thing to remember when concocting expectations for him.

Some might say his rookie season was “too good to be true”, but it’s just as appropriate to say that his last two seasons have been too poor to be true, especially when you factor in his nagging injuries last season on top of the season-ending injury in 2013.

Next: Looking at the George Johnson acquisition

More from NFL Spin Zone

Home/Tampa Bay Buccaneers