Miami Dolphins: Expectations for Greg Jennings

The Miami Dolphins no longer have a first-round-worthy need at the wide receiver position after signing veteran wide receiver Greg Jennings to a two-year deal earlier this week. It’s clear that the Dolphins believe Jennings will be a significant contributor in their new-look passing attack that includes fellow offseason additions Jordan Cameron and Kenny Stills, as the Dolphins are shelling out $8 million over those two seasons with a $3 million signing bonus.

That’s a significant amount of guaranteed money for a wide receiver who will be 32 when the season starts and spent a fair amount of time on the open market, as he was seemingly the Dolphins Plan B to the younger Michael Crabtree. That said, Jennings is a safer option than Crabtree and received more interest around the league than the current Oakland Raiders wideout, as the Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New Orleans Saints also had interest.

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With the Minnesota Vikings, Jennings spent most of his time in the slot and was a bit miscast. That said, the Vikings didn’t have any other safer options, and he still managed to average 12.4 yards per reception despite spending plenty of time on the inside. In my opinion, while he has the versatility to succeed in the slot, he’s better off as a “Z” receiver who can move the chains on the outside.

It’s clear that rookie sensation Jarvis Landry, who is already one of the safest receivers in the league due to his hands and clean route-running, will be the Dolphins main wideout. Landry gets open and will be a huge key for the offense when he kicks inside to the slot in three-wide sets. Meanwhile, Stills and Cameron are explosive weapons with high upside, and I am especially interested in seeing what Stills can do after averaging gaudy yards per target totals in his limited role in the Saints offense.

As for Jennings, he’s heading into an offense that will allow him to play on the outside more often, and he’ll have better players around him in Miami. Instead of being the focal point as he was with the Vikings, Jennings is exactly where he should be; a veteran No. 3 receiver whose main job is to get open for a young, talented QB.

It’s hard to project how many targets Jennings will receive, since it’s hard to predict how healthy Cameron will be or when the Dolphins will draft a receiver. They seem intent on surrounding Ryan Tannehill with a great supporting cast, as evidenced by the additions of Stills, Cameron, and Jennings, in addition to their purportedly strong interest in Todd Gurley. Moreover, Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald wrote that the Dolphins “still might” take a receiver in this year’s draft.

After giving Greg Jennings $3 million in guaranteed money on a two-year deal after he played reasonably well last season with a 64.8% catch rate, a crisp 8.2 yards per target, and some strong performances to cap off the season, I can’t see the Dolphins taking a first-round receiver. If DeVante Parker falls to them and Gurley isn’t available, then I could see the ‘Fins taking the plunge. But other than that, I’d say the Dolphins are poised to take a receiver on Day 2.

In his two seasons with the Vikings, Jennings received 106 and 91 targets, respectively, and the drop in targets can be explained by the increase in the depth of pass-catchers on the team’s roster, as well as Teddy Bridgewater‘s ability to quickly read through progressions. Unlike Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel, Bridgewater was more willing to spread the ball around, so he didn’t focus on throwing it to Jennings as often, though he did use the former Green Bay Packers star as a safety valve.

I expect even less than 91 targets for Jennings next season, but the Miami Dolphins will likely use him in the same role. An average of just under eight yards per target with a catch rate of at least 65% is fair, because Tannehill is an accurate intermediate passer who will likely use Jennings’s route-running and veteran savvy to his advantage. I expect Jennings’s yards per reception average to be around 11, as he’ll likely be that chain-moving veteran for the Dolphins.

Oct 2, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Greg Jennings (15) catch a pass in front of Green Bay Packers fs Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (21) during the third quarter at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 42-10. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Again, his target totals will depend on the Dolphins draft strategy and the health of the other pieces on offense, and it’s also important to note that drafting Gurley would also cause Jennings’s targets to drop (more touches need to go to Gurley on the ground, though he’ll mostly affect Lamar Miller‘s workload).

Last season, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson received 63 and 51 targets, respectively, despite playing poorly (but the Dolphins also had way less depth at the position), so I think 80 targets is a realistic projection for Jennings.

I could see him threatening for 700 yards next season, but plenty of his routes could be used simply to take pressure off of Stills and others. The more I think about this signing, the more I like it for the Dolphins, because Jennings is an excellent fit for Tannehill’s strengths as a quarterback (he had a 66.4% completion percentage last season).

Next: Grading the Jennings Signing

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