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Fantasy Football: Rob Gronkowski or Calvin Johnson?

By Dan Salem

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Does the top fantasy tight end trump possibly the best wide receiver in the league? Fantasy Football 2015 is here, but forget easy fantasy decisions with rankings and lists, we’re talking hypothetical trades. Two sets of fantasy football players; who would you rather have? Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL TD Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream and debate the NFL and sports.

TODD:

It is officially fantasy football season. The interwebbings will soon be flooded with rankings, drafts, sleepers and busts if they aren’t already.

But that stuff doesn’t get at the meat of fantasy decisions. Anyone can know to take Jamaal Charles before Frank Gore, and that the latter may bust. Everyone can figure the upside to taking Odell Beckham, and real sleepers aren’t sleepers at all if they’re being talked about!

So with that, let’s take a deeper dive. I am going to supply two sides of a hypothetical fantasy football trade and you tell me which side would win the deal. These deals are isolated from league settings or roster construction. They are strictly either-ors.

Would you rather have…

A: Rob Gronkowski
or
B: Calvin Johnson

The former is the unanimous top tight end in fantasy football this season. The latter is a bonafide stud at the wide receiver position. Does each player’s position factor into this decision? Does health? Or is it just about the raw numbers?

Both Gronkowski and Johnson put up huge numbers when healthy. Gronk is better compared to his positional peers, but Johnson has been better overall, mostly because of the games-played edge.

Of course, both players are injury risks at this point in their respective careers.

Gronk has been in that boat for a long while and he continued that last season, starting just 10 times, although he saw action in nearly ever game. Even Johnson though is now an injury liability, which is why he’s no longer the top wide receiver in fantasy.

I would worry about missed games for both guys, which could cancel out that factor in this hypothetical deal. You also must consider the level of replacement though if you were to own either. Only 12 tight ends are started in any league (assuming 12-team league), but the position is always shallow and heavily hit-or-miss after the top couple performers. Meanwhile, receiver is very deep in talent, but that point is misleading.

Wide receiver is deep compared to, say, running back because of how the NFL has developed into a passing league. However, WR is no deeper this year compared to itself than it has ever been. What I mean is the 25th-ranked wide receiver may score more points than he did six years ago, but he will be no better compared to the 24 receivers ahead of him, if that makes sense. Everyone has seen their scoring increase.

I’d rather have Gronkowski because of the ownership of the TE position, but I could make a case for Mega as well.

Jan 4, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) cathces a pass over Dallas Cowboys cornerback

Brandon Carr

(39) and

Barry Church

(42) during the fourth quarter in the NFC Wild Card Playoff Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

DAN:

This is a tough decision, because a great tight end is a precious commodity, but a superstar wide receiver is equally as coveted. The difference between the top few tight ends in fantasy football and anyone outside of the top five is enormous. Yet you are spot on with the receivers; they too diverge greatly outside of the top ten.

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Injuries get to the heart of this decision. Gronk is an enormous asset, as few other teams in your league will have anyone close at tight end who can produce like him. Megatron is equally as valuable, as his production far exceeds nearly every other wide receiver. Factoring in the odds of each player being on the field for all sixteen games ends this debate.

I’m taking Calvin Johnson. He’s put up over 1000 yards six times in his career, six out of eight seasons. He’s also scored double digit touchdowns four times. Compared to Gronkowski he’s easily the more reliable fantasy player.

Gronk has put up over 1000 yards only twice in his career, in two of five seasons. He has however scored double digit touchdowns in four of his five seasons. That is certainly impressive.

In the end it comes down to my instincts in regards to injuries and production. Both the Lions and Patriots need these guys and rely upon them. Yet my gut says Megatron is on the field for far more games than Gronk. I also feel like I can find a surprise player at tight end in the mid rounds of a fantasy draft. But grabbing one of the top receives will make or break your fantasy year.

I value a wide receiver over a tight end, and considering Tom Brady might be out for the first four games of 2015, I’ll put my money and my pick on Calvin Johnson.

Next: Fantasy Football - Eddie Lacy or DeMarco Murray?

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