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Fantasy Football: Shane Vereen or Torrey Smith?

By Dan Salem

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Does a running back trump a wide receiver for your fantasy football flex spot? When they’re both on new teams the numbers get muddled. Two fantasy football players; who would you rather have? Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL TD Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream and debate the NFL and sports.

TODD:

Fantasy football season is upon us and the interwebbings are flooded with rankings, drafts, sleepers and busts. But that doesn’t get at the meat of fantasy decisions, the real deal choices you must master to win your league.

I’ll supply a hypothetical fantasy football trade and you tell me which side wins the deal. These deals are isolated from league settings or roster construction. They are strictly either-ors.

Would you rather have…

A) Shane Vereen
or
B) Torrey Smith

Who do you want filling your flex position? Both Vereen and Smith are top 100 fantasy options entering their first seasons with new teams.

Vereen has moved on from the world champion New England Patriots into the crowded backfield on the Giants. Of course, he is used to playing with peers battling him for playing time. And Vereen, although a running back by trade, is most useful because of his receiving numbers on top of what he does on the ground.

Four different Patriots carried the ball at least 60 times last season. Four Pats also caught at least 50 balls. Vereen was the only player to make both lists. Similar production can be expected in New York where he seems like the clear top option for third-down duties and may garner time on other downs as well.

Is this bulk production more valuable than what Torrey Smith will be able to accomplish in San Francisco? Smith has left the deep threat offense of Baltimore to join the ground and pound, passing inept offense of the 49ers (29th last season in completions and 30th in yards). Perhaps part of San Fran’s inability to pass successfully though was due to it lacking a player of Smith’s caliber on fly routes.

Aug 22, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots running back Shane Vereen (34) dives for a touchdown during the third quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

I’m dubious. I don’t like how Colin Kaepernick is trending at quarterback. I don’t like that no 49er with at least 15 catches averaged even 13 yards per reception.

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Is it crazy to prefer a possible third-string running back to a number-one wide receiver? Because that’s where I’m going here. I would rather have Vereen starting for me each week than relying on Smith to catch bombs in San Francisco.

DAN:

Two players joining new teams after four seasons, their entire careers, with the same franchise. This is a tricky fantasy football decision. Usually for flex spots its safe to go quarterback, then wide receiver. But things are not so cut and dry when comparing the former Patriot to the former Raven.

Both players had success on successful football teams. Yet in the world of fantasy football, Smith blew away Vereen the last two seasons and it’s not even close. Its like the hare racing the tortoise, but the hare wins because he’s simply a lot better.

Torrey Smith in 2014: 16 games, 767 yards, 11 TDs
Torrey Smith in 2013: 16 games, 1128 yards, 4 TDs
Shane Vereen in 2014: 16 games, 391 yards rushing, 447 yards receiving, 5 TDs
Shane Vereen in 2013: 8 games, 208 yards rushing, 427 yards receiving, 4 TDs

Vereen put up nearly comparable numbers in twice as many games last year, as compared to the season prior. But as you noted, the Patriots had a crowded backfield and Vereen’s upside is in the passing game. He joins a New York Giants team which will be good, with potential for reaching that upper echelon. His fantasy value should remain constant. I see a slight uptick, but no dramatic swings.

Smith was obviously inconsistent in the touchdowns department, over inflating his fantasy value last season with double-digit scores. He joins a San Francisco team that is trending towards average at best. Bouncing back from 30th in passing yards and 22nd in passing touchdowns should be easy, but won’t be considering the defensive prowess within their division.

Jan 10, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) catches the ball in front of New England Patriots cornerback

Brandon Browner

(39) during the third quarter in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike you, I’m not worried about Colin Kaepernick. However, I am concerned about the 49ers and their offensive abilities. An average football team is not likely to find its third receiving option very often, and that’s what Smith is. He’s firmly behind Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis for targets in my opinion.

I bet you think I’m going to agree with you, but you’re wrong. Because we are talking a flex spot on your fantasy roster, it’s the ideal situation to take a big risk. If you fail, just drop the guy and grab someone off waivers. But if it succeeds you look like a hero.

I’m taking Torrey Smith. If the 49ers are a winning team in 2015, if they improve on offense, and if Smith is healthy all year, he’s likely to come close to those 11 touchdowns of a season ago. He may even reach 1000 yards once again. A change of scenery often does wonders for players. Unfortunately for Vereen, he’s probably handicapped by the depth of the Giants’ offense. He’ll get his numbers, but there is little opportunity for a bigger year than expected.

Next: Fantasy Football - Best QB/WR duo on Eagles, Vikings, or Dolphins?

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