Carolina Panthers: The Stephen Hill Conundrum

Anybody who has been at least somewhat interested in Carolina Panthers happenings this offseason has been subject to a smattering of Stephen Hill updates, whether it’s a TD catch he made in OTAs or praise from head coach Ron Rivera for a “good day at the office”. And with each passing positive update (most athletic wideouts with 4.3s wheels aren’t usually the subject of negative offseason updates, after all), the little voice in the back of your head incessantly asking, “Is this for real? Can I buy in now?” gets louder.

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For the “Average Joe” (so, literally me), this is the “Stephen Hill Conundrum” I’m talking about here. It’s an issue of buying into a former second-round pick who runs a 4.36 forty despite also being 6’4″, even if he spent the entire 2014 season on the practice squad and was a drop-prone, inefficient, clueless disaster in his two seasons with the New York Jets.

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But it isn’t quite as simple as that, which is a good reason for Hill. Of course, it’s the main reason why people like me are still holding out a glimmer of hope for a guy who has absolutely nothing going for him despite his size-speed combo. See, Hill never had a real quarterback or offensive set-up around him in New York, and he now has the opportunity to make a Panthers roster with a legit franchise quarterback in Cam Newton throwing him the ball; a franchise QB with deep ball placement and arm strength who can use his size/speed to great effect.

As Panthers fans are always quick to note, their organization’s WRs coach is Ricky Proehl, who is two parts cult hero and wizard. Not only did he coax a career year out of Ted Ginn Jr. in 2013 after three irrelevant seasons with the San Francisco 49ers (Ginn was a non-factor for the Arizona Cardinals last year before re-joining the Panthers this offseason), but he also helped coach the ultra-raw Kelvin Benjamin into an immediate success as a rookie. Proehl can take a guy with little experience and poor hands, but turn him into a productive player by maximizing his athletic talents.

So yeah, if anyone can help Hill right the ship, it’s Proehl. The problem is that there’s much work to be done when it comes to coaching up a guy who came from the antithesis of a pro-style offense in college, especially since Hill didn’t make any tangible progress in his first two seasons in the league.

Despite all of the positive reports this offseason, the fact of the matter is that Hill’s own conundrum is a lot more dire than a fan’s or a fantasy addict’s. Simply put, this is Hill’s best shot at putting himself back on the map, and if he can’t make good use of Proehl and Newton, then that’s a damning statement of ineffectiveness.

As of right now, Hill is up against Brenton Bersin, Jarrett Boykin, and maybe Marcus Lucas. All three of those wide receivers have something in common that they don’t share with Hill, and that is a lack of speed. Boykin’s below-average speed is well-known at this point, whereas Bersin and Lucas both ran 4.60 forties as draft prospects.

Lucas had a decent college career, and I think he’ll make the roster if Hill flops and the team decides they’d rather go with a younger possession receiver than Boykin. I hear all these kind words about Bersin, and, sure, he’s a nice guy with awesome hair and a mean work ethic, but does going to Wofford really make him a legit threat to make the roster? I just don’t see any standout traits with Bersin, and he’s not the type of guy you want to take a flier on as the sixth receiver on your depth chart; unlike the others, he doesn’t bring something unique to the table.

Honestly, I see this battle coming down to Boykin vs. Hill, and it doesn’t get more different than that. Boykin is a slow, veteran guy who lacks athletic ability and was only mildly productive in 2013 thanks to Aaron Rodgers and an increased role in an elite offense due to injuries to others. But Boykin brings experience to the table and is decent in the intermediate game due to his physical strength and fluidness, with the latter trait ensuring that Jerricho Cotchery doesn’t make him redundant (I think Boykin is more of a backup “Z” than a backup slot guy).

Aug 22, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Stephen Hill (84) on the bench against the New York Giants during the second half at MetLife Stadium. The Giants defeated the Jets 35-24. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

In any case, Hill is the Carolina Panthers developmental guy and elite speedster. But the problem is that Hill has shown nothing in his career outside of size and speed, and he won’t make the Panthers roster if he’s a one-trick pony. See, the Panthers already have two players who can function as deep threats in the even more explosive Ginn and solid 2014 contributor Corey Brown. Ginn averaged 8.2 yards per target in 2013, and Brown also put up 8.2 YPT last season, so both are more efficient and proven options than Hill.

Throw in Kelvin Benjamin’s 13.8 yards per reception last year, and you can see why the pressure is on Hill to do more than just run “9” routes to take the lid off the top of defenses. Perhaps Newton could benefit from having another situational deep threat, and Hill is different from Brown and Ginn, who are both just 5’11”. But Hill isn’t naturally quick due to his size, so he has to improve his hands and route-running in order to be a legit factor in the intermediate game and red zone (you can’t always win with just size), since it’s harder to latch onto the Panthers roster if he’s only good for one thing.

Aug 24, 2013; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Stephen Hill (84) has words with New York Giants linebacker Jacquian Williams (57) during the third quarter of a preseason game at MetLife Stadium. Hill was called for a fifteen-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not sure if I’d rather have Hill on my side or Boykin, but since Benjamin, Brown, and Ginn already qualify as dynamic playmakers, there might be more of a need for another possession-based guy, especially since Devin Funchess’s role in the offense probably isn’t certain yet.

In a way, Hill’s tasks are the same: improve route-running and hands under a coach who can help take you to the next level. The problem is that the learning curve is steep for a guy who, per Advanced Football Analytics, has averaged just 5.6 yards per target with 13.2 yards per reception and a 42.5% catch rate in his two seasons.

I like Proehl, I like the fact that Hill’s size could give him another dimension, and I like the fact that he has more upside than the players he’s competing with for a roster spot (after all, he is just 24). What I worry about, though, is that he’ll never have the mental tools or polish to use his size to his advantage, because, aside from his speed (and nobody can mess up straight-line speed if a defense forgets about them), none of his other traits have been put to use on an NFL field.

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