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Houston Texans: Can Cecil Shorts seize opportunity and get back on track?

By Kevin Parvizi

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The Houston Texans knew they needed to revamp their wide receiver corps this offseason after they granted expensive No. 2 wideout Andre Johnson‘s request for a release, and they made three notable additions in an effort to help Ryan Mallett and/or veteran Brian Hoyer to succeed under center. Their two veteran signings, Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington, come from AFC South times, while third-round pick Jaelen Strong is raw but promising prospect out of Arizona State whose size, hands, and straight-line speed could overcome his lack of fluidness and poor route-running even as a developing rookie.

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We all know DeAndre Hopkins is a top wide receiver after the former first-round pick out of Clemson went off last season after a promising enough rookie year, but Strong and Shorts, who figure to be the No. 2 and 3 receivers in some order with situational deep threat Washington as the fourth man, are wild cards.

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Strong is the harder of the two to project, and there’s a chance he might not be much of a factor in his first season if his route-running issues continue to plague him. His upside and measurables are outstanding, as is his ability to win at the catch point. But his tape before the catch is incredibly underwhelming, and thus it isn’t a surprise to read the following nugget from Rotoworld’s Evan Silva.

"A person I trust with Texans connections recently described Strong as “way behind” after battling sub-par conditioning and a hamstring injury this spring, and said he “highly doubt(s)” Strong will be “a factor this year.”"

Take that as you will, but when Silva speaks or feels a certain piece of info is worth sharing, then I’m all ears.

Out of all the receivers on the roster behind the unquestioned No. 1 guy (Hopkins), Shorts has the best opportunity to do some damage. The Texans offense figures to be vanilla-flavored again, as Bill O’Brien will continue to ride elite back Arian Foster and take as much pressure as he can off of his two quarterbacks (just as he did with Ryan Fitzpatrick did last year).

Hopkins had 127 targets last season, and he’s a strong bet to have even more targets than Johnson’s team-leading 146 looks last season. His numbers last season (15.9 yards per reception, 59.8% catch rate, team-high 1,210 yards) were fantastic, and while they figure to decrease with more pressure on him, that pressure should only serve to make life easier on the team’s No. 2 receiver.

With more depth, the Texans will make up for their lack of a dynamic duo by spreading the wealth more often, but because they were able to support two 75-catch receives last season, it’s clear that the team’s No. 2 wideout in 2015 will have ample opportunities to prove his worth.

If there’s anyone with something to prove this year, then it’s Shorts, who signed a modest two-year, $6 million deal with $2.5 million in guarantees. He had to take such a cheap deal after playing so poorly last season, and he can’t realistically use Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars as a reasonable excuse for his woeful production.

On the surface, 53 receptions and an average of 42.8 yards per reception don’t seem to bad, but those numbers literally tell us nothing about Shorts’s play last year; the more advanced stats paint a damning picture of his 2014 performance. As per Advanced Football Analytics, he caught just 46.6% of everything thrown at him with a staggeringly low 5.0 yards per target that was even less impressive than his 6.3 yards per target in 2013.

Shorts has played consistently worse in each of the past two seasons since his breakout campaign in 2012, and, again, he can’t blame Bortles for what happened last season. Pro Football Focus’s Mike Clay looked at a wide receiver’s expected catch rate by adjusting for average depth of target and quarterback quality, but neither of those could help Shorts save face.

There may be more complicated factors at here (perhaps Shorts received the most desperation attempts from Bortles as the veteran of a rookie-stacked WR corps), but there’s simply no excuse for being the league’s most underperforming pass-catcher when it comes to catch rate vs. expected catch rate. Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Andre Roberts, and Jeremy Kerley were all on the list after their lousy 2014 seasons, but there’s a case that Shorts was the worst of the bunch.

Oct 26, 2014; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts III (84) runs the ball past Miami Dolphins safety Reshad Jones (20) during the first half of the game at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

The first sentence in the last paragraph? Yeah, here’s why I mentioned that (Sammy Watkins was also on Clay’s list of under-performers in catch rate).

So why did the Houston Texans sign him in the first place? Well, the 27-year-old out of Mount Union did look like a promising and explosive weapon on a talent-thin Jaguars offense back in 2012. Even Chad Henne couldn’t prevent Shorts from shining, as the seemingly ascending small-school wide receiver averaged 9.3 yards per target and 17.8 yards per reception.

He didn’t have a high catch rate, but he did make plays, score seven touchdowns, and average nearly 70 yards per game in his first season with regular playing time. Had he played in all 16 games, he would have surely hit 1,000 yards (he had 979 in 14 appearances that year).

Cecil Shorts is still in the prime of his career athletically, and his tools were good enough to allow him to average 17.8 yards per catch and put up 979 yards and seven TDs despite playing in an otherwise awful offense. He’s a tough, experienced guy who can succeed in the slot or on the outside, and his past production and ability to play across the formation should make him the favorite to be the No. 2 guy. Strong has more raw talent and upside, but Shorts isn’t short on talent, so he’s a compromise between upside (Strong) and experience (Washington).

But even though Shorts has played well in the past, it’s hard to get rid of the sour stench of his 2014 season, because it was simply that awful. On the bright side, the offense around him will be much better in 2015, as the Texans do have an elite back, a true No. 1 receiver, a much better offensive line, and a less-overwhelmed QB under center. The change in scenery could be the catalyst for a bounce-back season from Shorts, who has the quickness and strength to be a big factor for Mallett/Hoyer in the slot (he showed plenty of YAC ability as a sophomore in that breakout campaign of his).

Nov 2, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts III (84) runs the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the second half at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati defeated Jacksonville 33-23. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

There are roadblocks to a bounce-back season for Shorts, with one being his lack of health over the past two seasons. He’s missed three games in each of the past two years, but the missed games column doesn’t even tell the whole story. See, Shorts is tough enough to play through these recurring soft-tissue injuries, but it’s clear that they significantly hurt him on gamedays.

But the silver lining here is that Shorts’s huge struggles last season could be more injury-based than once thought, which is yet another positive for the Texans as they hope for their cheap, veteran flier to seize this opportunity at a clear-cut role in this offense as a versatile No. 2 option if Strong proves to be too raw to make an immediate impact.

It’s hard not to like the fit he brings to the table, especially given the fact that he was one of the quickest players in his draft class when looking at three-cone drill and shuttle times. The contract is excellent from the Texans perspective, the opportunity is there, and he has the talent to be a real bounce-back guy if he’s healthy. We’ve been burned by Shorts under-performing in each of the past two seasons, but here’s to hoping that he’s the perfect buy-low candidate.

Next: Is Hopkins A Top 15 WR?

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