New Orleans Saints: Expectations For Mark Ingram

This time a year ago, it was looking as though Mark Ingram may end up being a bust in the NFL, and that the Saints may have made a big mistake drafting him in the 1st Round in the 2011 NFL Draft. Now, after what was by far the best season of his career, Ingram is hoping to solidify his position as the team’s No. 1 running back.

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Last year, Ingram managed career highs in yards (964) and touchdowns (9) while only playing in 13 games and starting only 9. This performance earned him a spot in the Pro-Bowl, along with a new 4-year $16 Million contract from the New Orleans Saints, and a presumptive position atop the team’s depth chart. However, he’s got plenty of competition in the backfield, and he’s faced his share of injuries, so should we be wary of letting our expectations get too high for 2015?

Last year’s standout Khiry Robinson is hoping to continue to have a solid role in the team’s backfield. After going undrafted in 2013, Robinson managed to make the team’s roster, and his been an effective player ever since, despite only starting 3 career games. He’s got a career 4.5 yards per carry average, and makes an effort to make the most of every carry he gets:

"“I’m the type of person, I’m gonna get what I get and do what I do with it. So whether it’s 20 carries or one carry, I’m gonna do the best of my ability every play,” said Robinson. (via ESPN’s Mike Triplett)"

It seems unlikely that Robinson will steal massive amounts of carries from Ingram, but he should play a factor this season if he continues to improve and can stay healthy. One reason for Robinson’s failure to be dominant to this point is his inability to stay on the field. He’s played in only 10 games each of his two seasons in the league, and this could hold him back. However, Ingram needs to keep his eyes on Robinson, because he’s shown he has the ability to be an excellent player.

The other competitor for carries in the backfield will be newly acquired running back C.J. Spiller. Spiller is another guy who has struggled with injuries, only playing every game of the season twice in his career, but he’s already shown an ability to be a dominant back. He managed 1,244 yards on the ground and 459 yards receiving in 2012, his best year, to go along with 8 total touchdowns. He’s also showed game-breaking ability, returning 2 of his 25 career kick-returns for a touchdown.

Spiller fits the mold of a runner/reciever combo that Saints head coach Sean Payton has been fond of in recent years, and he is expected to be a big part of the offensive strategy. ESPN’s Mike Triplett believes that Spiller and Ingram will have similar yardage totals this season, although he thinks roughly half of Spiller’s production will be as a receiver, whereas most of Ingram’s will come on the ground.

Before Ingram did it last year, no Saints running back had seen 200+ carries since Deuce McAllister did it in 2006. In five of the seven years since then, there has been at least two players on the team’s roster receive over 100 carries. The team likes to rotate their running backs, and I expect them to do that again in 2015. However, Ingram’s production last season may have put him in a position to be the workhorse back.

There is the question, however, as to whether or not Ingram has the ability to be the workhorse. He’s only played every game in a season once in his career, that season being a 2012 that saw him carry the ball 156 time for 602 yards. He’s suffered through foot injuries most of his career, and missed several games in 2014 with a broken hand.

The Saints as a whole have not shown themselves to be run-first team, as they have generally relied on Drew Brees and the passing attack. After trading tight end Jimmy Graham, however and with Brees aging, I expect the team to begin to shift more towards a run-first strategy, leaning heavily on Ingram who will split a lot of carries with Spiller and some with Robinson. Coach Sean Payton seems likely to continue to lean on Ingram, after being impressed by his back’s performance last year:

"“I couldn’t be more excited to see him have the success because you see the work behind the scenes. You see the preparation by him, you see the professionalism by him,” Payton said of Ingram, according to ESPN’s Mike Triplett."

Ingram hasn’t yet shown us the ability to be an every-down type back for an entire season, and until I see that, I must remain skeptical that it can happen. I think he has a lot of talent that he was finally able to showcase last year, but expectations for his 2015 season must be kept in check until we see how his body will hold up and how the Saints plan to use their running back stable.

Overall, I expect Ingram to improve on his successful 2014 campaign, but his statistics will be brought down a bit due to the competition in the New Orleans backfield. This will benefit him in the end, however, as sharing the load will help him to prevent injuries and stay on the field. If he can’t stay healthy then his year will look very different, but I think he should look as talented as he did last year and be one of the best players on his team.

My 2015 Predictions For Mark Ingram:

220 Carries, 1,100 yards, and 12 touchdowns

35 receptions, 200 yards, 2 touchdowns

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