15 Bold Predictions: No. 5: Matthew Stafford Becomes Elite

When the Detroit Lions selected Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick in the 2009 draft, there were certain expectations set for the golden-armed quarterback.

This was a team that was coming off of a humiliating 0-16 season, and it was a team that needed a shot in the arm.

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While it took Stafford a few years to get used to the NFL, as well as battle injuries, Stafford exploded in Year No. 3. The former Georgia Bulldog threw for 5,038 yards to go along with 41 touchdowns, a 97.2 quarterback rating and Detroit’s first playoff berth 1999.

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And just like that, the Lions organization was reinvigorated.

In his relatively short NFL career, Stafford holds a bevy of records. He’s the fastest player to reach 14,000, 15,000, 16,000 and 17,000 passing yards. He also holds almost every single Lions franchise passing record in existence.

Stafford took a step back in 2012, but he’s been solid for the past two seasons. Last year ended the same way 2011 did: With a playoff berth and a quick exit.

Entering year 7, one-and-dones in the playoffs start to get old. Stafford will have to do more this year. But with a defense now lacking two of its most valuable players from last year, the quarterback will likely have to elevate his game.

I believe Stafford has what it takes to become a top-tier quarterback. As he enters the prime of his career, it’s time to start playing like one.

Let’s start with Stafford’s supporting cast, because the supporting cast plays a vital role in a quarterback’s success. It’s what helped Tom Brady throw for 50 touchdowns, and what helped Peyton Manning throw 55.

Stafford’s group of pass-catchers is one of the league’s best, featuring names like Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, Joseph Fauria and of course, Calvin Johnson.

Nov 9, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

The big surprise of last year was the production of Golden Tate III. When Detroit inked him to a lucrative deal, some were skeptical. But Tate silenced his critics when he hauled in 99 receptions for 1,331 yards and four touchdowns.

Tate proved he’s far more than the number-two receiver he was in Seattle, and he stepped up and performed like a big-time receiver.

Megatron wasn’t 100 percent last year, and that certainly hurt his production. However, it’s erroneous to think Johnson isn’t still one of the best receivers in the entire NFL.

Ebron, while disappointing in his rookie year, is a talented and fluid athlete who should be able to have a bounce-back sophomore year.

So his receivers are top-notch, but that’s not what this article is about. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: The Detroit Lions will go as far as Stafford can take them.

Gone are the days of Barry Sanders carrying the offense solely on his back. And with the departures of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly, gone are the days of a dominant, top-five, run-stuffing defense.

Stafford has been a model of inconsistency throughout his career, routinely being a upper-middle-of-the-road quarterback at best. But I believe he has the talent, attributes and swagger to finally take the next step.

In my power ranking of the 32 starting quarterbacks, I ranked Stafford at 15, behind fellow first-overall picks such as Alex Smith, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.

Out of those aforementioned quarterbacks, Stafford has the strongest arm. When he delivers passes, he delivers them with such an intense velocity that it’s hard to imagine how his receivers don’t drop it.

When creating the ‘ultimate’ NFL quarterback, NFL.com’s Gil Brandt picked Stafford’s arm strength.

“If you’re looking for the player who has the strongest arm and can throw the ball the farthest, the Lions’ signal-caller is the guy you’re looking for,” Brandt said.

Stafford can launch the football as far as Calvin Johnson will run. However, sometimes he can try to force passes, which is where he can get into trouble.

Along with his cannon of an arm, Stafford has suitable mobility. Teams don’t exactly have to game plan to stop his scrambling ability, but he can pick up some important first downs with his legs. He’s good at extending the play and waiting for his receivers to get open, too.

“Arm strength and physical attributes aside, what impresses me the most about Stafford is his toughness and his unique swagger.”

So the arm strength is the furthest thing from being a concern. But arm strength alone doesn’t create successful NFL quarterbacks. Just ask JaMarcus Russell.

His accuracy has always been a bit subject, but the Lions are expecting an improvement his year.

“An improvement from last year,” head coach Jim Caldwell said, when asked about Stafford’s accuracy, to Dave Birkett of The Detroit Free Press. “He’s improved, he has a better feel for the system.”

While Stafford has the best arm out of the aforementioned list of quarterbacks, he also has the least amount of playoff wins. A whopping zero, in fact.

He needs to start rising to the occasion and playing like an elite, franchise-level quarterback. The area where Stafford struggles the most is in cold, outdoor games.

According to NFL.com, in Detroit’s three outdoor games following Oct. 26, here’s what Stafford’s stats looked like: 47.1 completion percentage, 241.3 yards per game, three touchdowns, three interceptions and a combined quarterback rating of 64.2.

Those numbers in the cold aren’t exactly impressive, especially when considering the NFC North still belongs to the Green Bay Packers.

As crazy as it sounds, Stafford has never won in Green Bay. Last year, Detroit had a chance to win the division in week 17, but history repeated itself and the Lions lost.

Supplanting the Packers as the team to beat in the North won’t be easy, but Stafford gives the Lions the best chance out of every other team in the division.

Arm strength and physical attributes aside, what impresses me the most about Stafford is his toughness and his unique swagger.

It’s something that can’t be taught, and the Lions are certainly lucky that their signal caller has it.

To be frank, he started impressing me in week 11 of his rookie year, with a single play that isn’t remembered that fondly or vividly by a mainstream audience, but it’s a play that will forever live in Detroit sports lure.

Jan 4, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws during the game against the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Wild Card Playoff Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

On the last play of regulation, Stafford hurled a deep pass to nobody in particular. As soon as he let the ball go, he was hit a shot that dislocated his shoulder. The Lions would get a free play because of defensive pass interference, and despite his injury, Stafford came in and threw the game-winning touchdown.

Four years later, Stafford would have more late-game heroics.

Down late against the Dallas Cowboy, a Stafford-to-Megatron pass would be downed at the one-yard line. Screaming to his teammates as they hurried to the line, everybody thought he was going to clock it. Instead, Stafford reached over the goal line and scored the go-ahead, game-winning touchdown.

Basically, Stafford has the ‘it’ factor that some quarterbacks spend their entire career trying to obtain. However, he still lacks a signature win in the playoffs. It’s something Eli, Peyton, Luck and Smith all have.

With that being said, Peyton didn’t win in the playoffs until his fourth appearance, while Eli didn’t win until his third.

At this juncture of his career, it’s time for Stafford to step up. He has all the talent surrounding him, and it’s now up to him. That means no more costly turnovers and no more losing in cold weather.

Once again, the Lions will go as far as Stafford can take them. This year, though, it will be an elite Stafford leading Detroit.

Next: 15 Bold Predictions: No. 4: Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs

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