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Can Buffalo Bills get the most out of Sammy Watkins?

By Kevin Parvizi

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The historically great rookie season that New York Giants superstar Odell Beckham Jr. put up last season always makes me wonder what the future holds for Buffalo Bills star wideout Sammy Watkins. I, and others, didn’t exactly sleep on ODB, and yet Watkins was the consensus No. 1 receiver in the class and viewed as a sure thing. This was, of course, because of his attention-to-detail, long speed, toughness at the catch point that made up for his lack of size, change-of-direction skills, polish, hands, agility, and vision after the catch (among other things).

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As a draft prospect at Clemson, Watkins had it all, and you can only wonder what might have ben for him as a rookie if he had a better quarterback than Kyle Orton or E.J. Manuel. After all, Watkins was dazzling a la Beckham in August, and even though he had his fair share of rookie mistakes, he still finished with an electric 15.1 yards per reception and a 65/982/6 line despite nagging injuries and poor quarterback play.

Just 22, Watkins has been picking where he left off last offseason, and the reviews on him couldn’t be more positive. The Buffalo News’s Tyler Dunne, who just started covering the Bills this offseason, had the following effusive praise to heap on Watkins’s shoulders.

WKBW’s excellent Joe Buscaglia wrote that Watkins is “routinely” separating himself from corners (and the Bills have some good ones), is making tough catches at camp, and has been “head-and-shoulders” above everyone else on the team. While none of that is surprising to those of us who studied Watkins closely as a draft prospect, it’s still fantastic news due to the sheer magnitude of the praise.

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Last season, Watkins averaged a somewhat mild 7.7 yards per target due to a low 50.8% catch rate, and plenty of that had to do with his quarterback play and usage as the team’s most explosive player. With Charles Clay and Percy Harvin joining Watkins and the underrated Robert Woods, there are more mouths to feed, but there might be less to go around with LeSean McCoy in the backfield.

Plus, Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor, or Manuel could prove to be even less effective than Orton was last year (though that is hard, since Orton’s awfulness was propped up by the likes of Watkins), and that’s what has made Watkins fly under the radar.

New offensive coordinator Greg Roman and head coach Rex Ryan have a tough task at hand, and that is to use Watkins to the best of his abilities. They need to put Watkins, who is a unique talent at the wide receiver position. He already did his best to make the best out of an awful OL and QB situation last year, and the Bills did little to put him an opportunity to have the ball in his hands. And when they did, stuff like this happened:

That wasn’t the only example of Watkins making the most out of a poor pass, though that is what he did for Tajh Boyd throughout his college career, as well. Watkins had 128 targets last season, but he should have had even more when you consider that Woods had 104, Scott Chandler, had 71, and Chris Hogan had 61, as per Advanced Football Analytics. Woods is solid, but he put up a full less yard per target than Watkins, who is superior to those pass-catchers in just about every way.

The gap won’t be as pronounced this year with Clay and Harvin on board, but the Buffalo Bills really need to make sure that they use Watkins on a variety of passing plays. He clearly led the team in AFA’s Deep%, with 39.1% of his targets coming at least 15 yards downfield.

Watkins clearly has the ability to go downfield with his speed, fluidity, and ability to make circus catches, but that’s not necessarily the most efficient way of using him in an offense that struggles to protect a below-average quarterback. Using him more in the short and intermediate games could prove to be more fruitful for both him and the offense as a whole, even if he’s still the team’s best deep threat going int0 2015.

Based on his tools, route-running, body control, and what we saw from him in college last season, and in training camp (OK, it’s “heard” and not “seen” in this case), Watkins is a special receiver who should be a top-ten player at the position in the future. He has no glaring weaknesses, and there’s a reason why he was so touted as a prospect (and why Doug Whaley aggressively traded up for him). If the Bills don’t put him in a position to succeed, then they will be preventing an elite player from becoming regarded as such.

Dec 28, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins (14) runs the ball against the New England Patriots during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Both Watkins and the Bills have an uphill battle due to the QB carousel that could take place, but hopefully they use him in a more efficient manner this season. They should continue to use him to stretch the field, yes, but I know his 50.8% catch rate last season wasn’t just the result of poor QB play. Orton played a big role in that, but Watkins’s catch rate was about 12% less than Woods’s; that’s a problem.

Now that he’s had a year to smooth over some of the minor route-running issues and drop concerns, Watkins is better than ever from a mental standpoint. He also said that he feels more explosive, so I have a feeling that he’s better-conditioned and healthier after those nagging injury woes last season (he played in all 16 games but was clearly playing through pain).

I firmly believe that Watkins has as much potential as any wide receiver in the NFL right now, and I hope people aren’t selling him short just because of the situation he is in. Due to the issues in the Bills offense, it is the job of the coaching staff to put him in a position where his talents can be best-used to help the offense; there’s no excuse for him to have less than 1,000 receiving yards and 70 catches this season, barring injury.

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