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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: How tough is Doug Martin’s bounce-back road?

By Kevin Parvizi

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I am a believer in Tampa Bay Buccaneers fourth-year running back Doug Martin. When I say I am believer in Martin, though, it means that I am a believer in his own talents, since I don’t buy that he suddenly declined after looking like an elite rusher in his rookie season. In 2012, Martin averaged 90.9 rushing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and 4.6 yards per carry, showing efficiency, durability, quickness, toughness, and enough talent in the passing game to warrant 49 receptions for an average of 9.6 yards per catch (not bad for an RB).

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Martin hasn’t found his footing since, as he struggled in 2013 before being lost for the season with an injury, and he put up another inefficient 3.7 yards per carry mark last season behind a dreadful offensive line that also struggled to keep Josh McCown upright.

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A trendy pick as a fantasy football sleeper due to the fact that the Buccaneers have a real offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, who has experience running a top-flight offense and has been hyping up a reportedly “leaner and quicker” Martin as their standout lead-back.

With Jameis Winston poised to be an immediate upgrade over McCown, the Buccaneers passing game looks ready to take pressure off of Martin with Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, expected breakout TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and the steady Tim Wright all around Winston. That’s one of the biggest selling points for the Martin hype train, which previously caused his ADP to rise.

His ADP has probably fallen ever since word of an injury to solid right tackle Demar Doston broke out, and while an ACL tear was initially feared, the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that he’ll be out for about six weeks with an MCL sprain. That qualifies as great news for the Buccaneers- because Dotson isn’t out for longer- but it’s a reminder of why Martin has the toughest road to get back on track of any legitimate bounce-back candidate.

Again, it’s obvious that he has the talent, and I believe every single report coming out of training camp that states Martin looks quicker and rejuvenated. The problem is that Martin’s success is likely out of his own hands, because his hopes and dreams rest on an offensive line that is filled with questions marks. In the spirit of that, let’s take a look at the questions I have for all of the Bucs offensive linemen who could play this year.

LT Donovan Smith: Is he even athletic/good enough to be a tackle?

LG Logan Mankins: He played well last year, but how much does he have in the tank?

C Evan Smith: Can he play to his potential after some struggles in pass pro last year?

RG Ali Marpet: How raw will he be?

RG Garrett Gilkey: Will he ever have to play?

FA RT Gosder Cherilus (they worked him out): If they sign him, will he have anything left to give?

Current RTs like Kevin Pamphile: How much would they struggle in six weeks?

Dotson is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers best offensive linemen, and the only other trust-worthy OLs on the team in the running game are Mankins and EDS, with the latter providing some especially solid work as a run-blocker when at his best. That’s a solid nucleus for Martin, but, unfortunately, he’s lost the most important member of the trio for a good chunk of time. Odds are that Dotson will be fully recovered and ready to play at a high level upon his return, but it still puts Martin in a tough spot to show off his stuff.

If Martin is to have a bounce-back season, he’ll need to show off plenty of “after contact” ability and more agility than he showed off in the previous two seasons. Per Pro Football Focus, Martin averaged just 2.16 yards after contact per carry and forced just eight missed tackles in the ground game, making him one of the NFL’s least-elusive backs (worse than Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, Matt Asiata, and Darren McFadden).

He had the same yards after contact per attempt and was almost equally lousy when it came to making defenders miss, and that’s striking since he had 3.15 yards after contact per carry with a whopping 53 missed tackles forced in the running game in his big 2012 season.

So if the offseason reports are true, then Doug Martin is closer to that 2012 form than his 2013 and 2014 performances, and he’ll have to be if he wants to be one of the NFL’s better running backs this season. The problem is that with Donald Penn and a little bit of Carl Nicks, the Buccaneers run blocking was better that year.

Aug 15, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) throws during the first quarter in a preseason NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The good news for Martin is that the Bucs offensive line is stronger in the running game than in the passing game, and that should include rookie left tackle Smith. Hopefully the rookies on the Bucs line can avoid becoming huge weak spots for this team, because they can’t afford that in any facet of their game. The passing game looks promising and looks significantly better than the 2013 and 2014 units that failed to take any pressure off of the Buccaneers running game, but, as we saw in the preseason opener, rookie success from Winston is far from a lock despite his clear “Rookie of the Year” potential.

Fantasy players know how to play it smart with tempering expectations for Martin, and the Dotson injury should serve as a wake-up call to those who have forgotten how much surroundings have impacted Martin. His 2013 injury isn’t to blame for his struggles, since he played poorly that season even before suffering the issue.

I think Martin should ultimately entrench himself as the Buccaneers lead back, and the way he has a breakout season is if he can use his physical tools to break off some big runs here-and-there. If he can show big-play ability, then he should pay-off as a bounce-back candidate, since it’s those big plays that will overcome the questions some of us have of his supporting cast, even if it is improved despite the Dotson injury.

If Martin can’t generate explosive plays on his own, then he could put up about average numbers…or even less than average in the efficiency department. I mean, he looked quick yesterday, and yet he averaged less than four yards per carry with 20 yards on five rushes.

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