New York Giants: What could Eli Manning deal look like?

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning refuted- and he did so quite strongly- the notion that he is seeking to become the highest-paid player at the position, but many of us have a healthy amount of skepticism about his denial of the report.

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Firstly, it’s a common negotiating tactic for a player/agent to place high demands on an organization before negotiating to a lower price, since, you know, that’s how negotiations go. Secondly, if Manning were to hit the open market in 2016, he would most likely become the highest-paid QB per year due to the frenzy that would ensue if a franchise quarterback hit free agency for the first time in the modern era.

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Manning is coming off of a season in which he had a 92.1 QB Rating with 30 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, a 63.1% completion percentage, and 7.3 yards per attempt while fully completing his adjustment to Ben McAdoo’s offense. He did this despite having Odell Beckham Jr. as his only true top target, as Rueben Randle was inconsistent despite catching 71 passes and Larry Donnell‘s mediocre talents were maximized by his sometimes unfairly criticized quarterback.

Both Phillip Rivers and Manning will have their careers intertwined, and you’ll always find people willing to take either side in the Rivers vs. Manning argument, which is one of the oldest debates between players at the position. Manning has the rings, Rivers has the more impressive on-field resume, and Rivers now has the contract after haggling with the San Diego Chargers for quite some time.

Rivers’s four-year, $83.25 million deal makes him the fourth highest-paid QB in the NFL on an annual basis, and no quarterback is making more guaranteed money. A whopping $65 million of his contract is in guarantees, which means that 78.08% of his contract is guaranteed.

Manning is undoubtedly looking at Rivers’s deal as the goal/benchmark for his next contract from the Giants, and working in his favor is the fact that, according to NJ.com’s Jordan Raanan, negotiations could potentially end up bleeding into the regular season if the back-and-forth dialogue doesn’t amount into progress.

The Giants and their star quarterback are most likely far apart when it comes to the deal they are willing to accept, because I have a feeling that the Giants don’t think Manning is good enough to command the type of money Rivers is making. After all, Rivers would have been the MVP in 2013 in his first year with a new offense if it wasn’t for Peyton Manning‘s record-breaking year with the Denver Broncos “Four Horsemen”.

When looking solely at annual contract value at the quarterback position, Cam Newton‘s deal with the Carolina Panthers confounds things further, because he’s making $20.76 million per year, which is only slightly less than Rivers’s $20.81 million. Newton’s deal last for five years due to his youth, which actually means that he’d have made less money per year on a four-year deal. Why? The Panthers would prefer to have Newton for one more season, and Newton would prefer to leave one year earlier since his value in new negotiations would be higher with one less year under his belt.

But since Eli Manning had a better statistical season despite similarly poor surroundings on offense (I mean, just check out his offensive line last year), he can successfully argue that he is the better player than Newton. His value over the life of his contract, though, (even for only four years as compared to five) has to be decreased due to his age. Unlike Newton, who is obviously an ascending talent, Manning is a declining talent. He’s still got it and surely has a few good years left in him, but 34-year-old quarterbacks are generally on the cusp of a fall.

Dec 14, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) greets New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham (13) after Beckham

Based on the fact that two other over-30 quarterbacks in Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, who are both just one year younger than Manning, earned four-year deals, it’s safe to say that a four-year deal is in the cards for Manning. I doubt he’d take anything less than that, and I can almost guarantee you that the Giants aren’t willing to give him more than four.

Rivers is making $16.25 million in guaranteed money per year, Newton $12 million, Atlanta Falcons star QB Matt Ryan $8.4 million, and Roethlisberger $7.75 million. Since contract values go up after each negotiation (players want to earn more than the guy who “set the market” if they feel they are of similar value), I could see Manning netting anywhere between $10 and $14 million in guaranteed money, depending on how negotiations progress. That would give him a total of $40-56 million in guarantees on a new deal.

As for average value per year, it’s hard to see Manning earning less than Rivers per season, so we could see the New York Giants sending him a deal that is higher than Rivers in total value but on the lower end of the $40-56 million in guarantees spectrum. Given that Roethlisberger makes $21.85 million each season and Rivers, again, $20.81 million, a contract worth a total of $84 million in new money is a possibility for Manning.

The problem is that Manning is a year older, and even though the trio of Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz, and Shane Vereen should enhance his future value, he could also just as easily end up making less money per season than Rivers. So a four-year deal worth around $40-56 million in guarantees with about $84 million in total seems likely. Despite the fact that he’s a year older than Rivers, I just can’t see him taking a deal that would pay him less per season.

Guaranteed money will likely be the hitch between both sides in these negotiations, because that’s what differentiates the quarterback contracts when looking at the contracts of the third to sixth highest-paid QBs in the NFL today. Each of those quarterbacks makes roughly $20.5-21.5 million per year, but the guarantees per year vary considerably.

Manning is a great quarterback who could produce top-ten QB numbers this upcoming season if Cruz proves to be healthy and Vereen is as advertised in the passing game (and/or if Randle can consistently use his talents), so it will be interesting to see if negotiations end up continuing into the regular season. If that happens and Manning plays well, then his financial stock could soar at a key time, though the work his teammates (particularly non-ODB receivers and his line) do will be instrumental in defining his negotiating power.

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