Houston Texans: Week 1 Expectations for J.J. Watt

By Kevin Parvizi | Sep 8, 2015

The Houston Texans completed an impressive worst-to-second turn-around in 2014, briefly challenging for a playoff spot by winning nine games in Bill O’Brien‘s first year at the helm despite having an unfavorable quarterback situation. Perhaps Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett will be a downgrade on Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Arian Foster‘s injury, which could potentially cost him six weeks, make it clear that the Texans expectations this season are still quite low (especially since team’s that finish second in the division have more difficult subsequent schedules than teams that finished last).

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The likes of J.J. Watt, DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Jackson, Duane Brown, Rahim Moore, and Vince Wilfork do give this Texans team some hope that they can build on last season’s rather surprising success. Watt, who is the NFL’s most dominant player at any position, in particular looks set to have an even more effective season on the stat sheet with Wilfork swallowing blocks up the middle. Wilfork is obviously no longer the same elite force he used to be, but he’s still a very capable run defender who understands the game as well as anybody.

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Playing with Wilfork and a potentially explosive Jadeveon Clowney (we’ll have to wait and see on him), Watt is guaranteed to have a 20.5-sack season. In fact, since he’s in his prime at 26 and will be playing around arguably the best supporting cast of his career, he could set the sack record and surpass his insane 2012 career-highs of 81 tackles, 21.5 sacks, 16 passes defended, and four fumbles forced.

It’s hard to expect a player to produce even more than that, but Watt has proven capable of shattering all expectations. Not only has he shattered expectations, but he’s laid superlatives to waste. In that 2012 season, Watt had strong defenders around him, and it looks like the Texans have a similarly talented supporting cast in place, especially if Brian Cushing‘s offseason resurgence is indeed legit.

We’ll get to see Watt in action in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET, and I don’t think he could have asked for a better matchup. He’ll mostly spend his time against right guard Jeff Allen and right tackle Eric Fisher, and while Allen is an above-average starting guard in this league, Fisher is nothing resembling an above-average starting tackle.

I’ve held out faith that his mild improvements with each game will allow him to have a significantly better third season, but that doesn’t appear to be the case here. The Chiefs actually moved him from left tackle to right tackle ahead of this Week 1 encounter, and although an optimist might come up with reasons like, “They want him to face J.J. Watt,” or “They like his run blocking on the strong-side,” the rhetoric surrounding the move makes it seem like it’s more of a benching.

Everyone who has the misfortune of facing Watt on Sundays (or any day) will be unceremoniously dispatched and have their names taken on a growing list of players who have been embarrassed by the best defensive lineman in NFL history. Fisher, Allen, and the Chiefs offensive line will be no exception to this.

Watt had 50 QB hits and 29 tackles for loss last season, according to Advanced Football Analytics, and Wilfork will give him more room to be an even deadlier and more efficient pass rusher in 2015. The Houston Texans could have an extremely difficult time scoring on the Chiefs dominant defense, but- even with Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, and Jeremy Maclin as true stars in this league- the Texans could also make life difficult for the Chiefs offense.

Aug 22, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) warms up before a game against the Denver Broncos at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Rushing the passer is what Watt is most known for, since that’s obviously what everyone focuses on more in this league. But Watt is also the NFL’s best run defender at any position, and that will be especially key when facing Charles. Alex Smith has shown that he can handle the heat, and while he won’t be able to escape Watt’s wrath, the bigger worry for the Chiefs will be helping push lanes open for Charles against a defense of Watt, Wilfork, and Cushing.

If I had to predict Watt’s stats for the Week 1 game against the Chiefs, then I’d say that he’ll be able to pull 2.0 sacks with six tackles, no passes defended, four QB hits, and one of those tackles going for a loss. I think Smith will be able to avoid getting swatted, but he’ll hit the turf a few times.

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