Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Does Jameis Winston panic in the pocket?

After three games with number-one overall draft pick Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1-2. Following a Week 1 debacle that saw Winston’s Bucs on the losing end of a 42-14 wipeout, the club responded nicely with a win over the Saints and a mistake-filled road loss to the Texans.

So how has Winston fared individually during this span?

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I watched the coaches footage to find some clues about Winston’s overall play. In all three games, I noticed that Winston loves to go after one-on-one opportunities with his receivers. Whether it has been Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, Louis Murphy, or Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Winston will almost always give his receivers a big play opportunity if he sees one-on-one coverage. That tells me that Winston must have supreme confidence that his receiving core can win in these situations.

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On the flip side, opposing teams try to use Winston’s confidence in his receivers against him. In the third quarter of the Houston game, Winston got into a rhythm by connecting on several intermediate slant routes with receiver Mike Evans. As a counter move, Houston brought safety Quintin Demps up to the line of scrimmage to show blitz.

On the snap of the ball, Demps dropped back into coverage and patrolled underneath Evans while cornerback Johnathan Joseph bracketed the top of the route. The result of the play was an interception by Demps on a pass that should have never been thrown. Either Winston never saw Demps drop back to double team Evans, or Winston was overly confident in his big right arm that he decided to fire the football into double coverage.

Sep 27, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) reacts during the second half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Houston won 19-9. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

That play aside, I feel that Winston actually did a better job of making quicker decisions from the pocket in Tampa Bay’s loss at Houston than he did in the week two win over New Orleans. I thought Winston was flustered at times by New Orleans’ blitzing style of defense. This led to Winston breaking outside the pocket even if there was no pass rush and taking three sacks in the process.

Winston and the Bucs saw a more talented defense when they squared off against the Houston Texans. With two rookie starters along the Buccaneers’ offensive line and Tampa Bay’s starting center Evan Smith unavailable due to injury, one would have thought that Texans’ super hero defensive end J.J. Watt would of had a field day against Winston. However, Winston quickened his pace from the pocket and fired off passes before Watt could wreak havoc in the backfield.

Dec 14, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) puts on his helmet before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Because of Winston’s quicker decision making within the pocket, he was not sacked by a Texan defender and did not have to attempt a single scramble against Houston. These results are in direct contrast to what happened in Tampa Bay’s previous two games which saw Winston attempt 12 total rushes and suffer seven total sacks against the Titans and Saints.

I think the lesson here is that even though Houston’s defense has far more individual talent than either Tennessee or New Orleans, aggressive blitzing defenses can cause Winston to panic and make big mistakes. I also think that Tampa Bay’s offensive line isn’t as bad as we thought they would be, so long as Winston releases the ball on time.

However, Winston’s accuracy seems to suffer when he has to fire off quicker passes. Winston completed 14 of 21 passes against the Saints compared to just 17 of 36 passes against Houston. Time will tell whether or not these numbers are because of inconsistency on Winston’s part, or simply timing issues with number one target Mike Evans. Seventeen of Winston’s passes were targeted to Evans who saw his first extended playing time of the season against Houston.

Aug 8, 2014; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) warms up prior to the preseason game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Another negative I see from Winston is his tendency to predetermine some of his throws. No play illustrates this habit better than Winston’s first career pass attempt which was intercepted and returned for a touchdown against the Titans. I believe the key to this interception was that Tennessee showed an aggressive blitz look before the snap and also disguised their zone coverage by having cornerback Perrish Cox follow a Bucs’ receiver in motion.

Once Tennessee rushed with five defenders, Winston may have predetermined that a hot receiver would open in the flat against man coverage. Instead, Winston fell victim to Titans’ defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau‘s exotic zone blitzing scheme. Tennessee defender Coty Sensabaugh was the beneficiary of the errant pass and took it to the house.

Sep 13, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tennessee Titans defensive back Coty Sensabaugh (24) celebrates after returning an interception for a touchdown in the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Growing pains are to be expected from Winston, so this three game sample size is a mixed bag of results. Winston looked lost and overwhelmed against the Titans in week one. Some of that may have overlapped into the Saints game, but Winston showcased his grit and determination by still leading his team to its first win of the season. Winston also demonstrated his knack for coming up clutch in that game with a masterful touchdown drive right before the end of the first half.

Winston seemed more poised and under control against the Texans, but accuracy issues from both he and kicker Kyle Brindza ultimately cost Tampa Bay the game. Considering that the expectations are low for the rebuilding Buccaneers, I think Winston has done a fair job with room for improvement to this point.

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