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Carolina Panthers: Ron Rivera must avoid expected schedule-related regression

By Kevin Parvizi

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The Carolina Panthers have been one of the best-coached teams in the NFL ever since Ron Rivera was hired to lead the way, and their success started in the 2013 season when they won the NFC South. Last season’s 7-8-1 finish was good enough to get them in the playoffs and win a game against the Ryan Lindley-led Arizona Cardinals, but the Panthers are hungry for more.

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Off to a 4-0 start for the first time since they made it to the Super Bowl in the 2003-2004 season, the Panthers appear to be in business. The problem, however, is the fact that they’ve merely skated past the easiest portion of their schedule. It’s hardly a challenge to defeat the rebuilding the Jacksonville Jaguars, the quarterback-challenged Houston Texans, the Luke McCown-led New Orleans Saints, and the rebuilding Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are led by pick-prone rookie Jameis Winston.

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In fact, I’d wager that the Panthers couldn’t have asked for an easier set of quarterbacks to face through the firs four weeks of the regular season, and it’s helped them become the NFL’s third-best defense in terms of points per game allowed. The Panthers have been dominant on that side of the ball with the third-lowest net yards per attempt surrendered, according to Pro-Football Reference, and a phenomenal 4:8 TD:INT ratio (half of those picks were thrown by Winston and half were caught by rising superstar Josh Norman).

The Panthers are in business right now, but Rivera and the coaching staff will have to prove that they can keep this team winning as they get into the meaty part of their schedule. Due to the issues in the NFC East- most namely the injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant– and games against the AFC South, teams in the NFC South have a light schedule. The Panthers aren’t an exception to this, but, as the division winners last year, they do have to play more difficult teams, such as the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks.

In fact, the Panthers will play the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year in Week 6, and that tilt will be followed by games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, and Packers. While the Eagles and Colts have been massive disappointments to this point, they are playoff-caliber squads and should be in better shape in a few weeks than they are right now (this is especially true for the Colts, since Andrew Luck is injured right now).

These four games will tell us if the Panthers are merely “decent” or “great”, though they’ll likely fall somewhere in that spectrum of adjectives. What makes these games all the more important for the Panthers is the fact that their main source of competition, the also undefeated Atlanta Falcons, have a laughably easy schedule. In fact, the Falcons could start the season 9-0, simply by virtue of the fact that they face the Washington Redskins, Saints, Tennessee Titans, Buccaneers, and San Francisco 49ers in their next five games; the Falcons have clearly played better football than all of those teams.

Whereas the Falcons would have to be upset with themselves if they lose more than one of those five games, the Panthers would be cool with going 2-2 in their next four. While the Eagles and Colts are not easy opponents, the Panthers have outplayed them so far and look like the favorites in those games. However, the Seahawks and Packers are clearly superior teams, so while it’s possible for Carolina to knock them off, nobody will be disappointed if they fall to these two Super Bowl contenders.

As a whole, I’ve been impressed with the Panthers coaching and defense to start the year, and Cam Newton has quietly been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks over the first quarter of the season. The man is leading an offense composed of Greg Olsen and a host of No. 3-quality receivers to victory, and he’s doing it with a defense that has been able to overcome Luke Kuechly‘s scary concussion situation, which needs to be an even bigger national storyline than it currently is.

Oct 4, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) runs in the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

The Carolina Panthers look like a playoff team right now, but they have a more difficult battle than the Falcons to when it comes to winning the division, simply because of those games against Green Bay and Seattle.

If Ron Rivera can win one of those games, then that would send a huge statement to the rest of the NFL that the Panthers are more than just a product of their schedule.

Of course, if they are a product of their schedule, they can still sneak into the playoffs, but it won’t be easy.

Not only do they have to weather a full season without Kelvin Benjamin, but they’ll also have to face a top team in the Cowboys when they’ll have Romo and Bryant back in the fold. The Panthers need to pile up the wins early in the season, and, hopefully, Kuechly will be able to return to help this cause.

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