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NFL Predictions Week 6: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

ByDan Salem|

The NFL elite keep winning, and this week’s picks give points in favor of dominance. No more risky moves. These are your Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for NFL Predictions Week 6. Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Check out more of the brothers in Seesaw Sports Debate on BuzzChomp. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

We went 3-0 last week up until you decided to bet against the New England Patriots. I can’t say I can blame you for taking a home team plus-9, but I will refrain from betting against New England until further notice. In fact, Week 6 seems like the perfect opportunity to place a reasonable wager ON the Pats. That’s where I begin for my Week 6 picks against the spread.

New England Patriots -8 at Indianapolis Colts
Arizona Cardinals -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Everyone is pointing to this Pats-Colts game as the ultimate F-You! game for Bill Belichick and company. The line opened at New England -6.5 and quickly shot up to -7.5 and then -8. I still like the Patriots here giving more than a touchdown, but it goes beyond the team trying to get some sort of revenge for Indy tattling on them to the commissioner’s office during last season’s playoffs. The bottom line is this Pats team is very good and this Colts team is not.

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I’m not sure how high the line would have to be for me to actually wager on Indianapolis here, but eight isn’t enough. Even if Andrew Luck is set to return from injury, it doesn’t change the selection. The Colts offense has actually been worse with Luck behind center. That won’t continue, but it is the benchmark nonetheless.

In my other game this week, I’m taking another great team being disrespected by a spread. Arizona had its wake-up call in Week 4 against the Rams. It came out last week and proved that was the fluke, and this team is one of the best in the conference. Now the Cardinals travel to a shaky Pittsburgh club only giving a field goal?

The Steelers are winning enough to keep themselves in position for Ben Roethlisberger‘s return, but they are doing so by the slimmest of margins. Literally, they could not have won Monday night by any less; the game-winning touchdown was a few inches from falling short.

Mike Vick made one nice throw down field and was otherwise replacement-level. Mike Tomlin didn’t even trust him enough to run the smart play at the end, a quarterback sneak. Pitt isn’t a good enough team with Vick at QB to cover this line against Arizona.

Nov 30, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; NFL referee Tyrol Prioleau (109) separates a fight between Atlanta Falcons fullback

Patrick DiMarco

(42) and Arizona Cardinals outside linebacker

Alex Okafor

(57) in the fourth quarter of their game at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 29-18. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

DAN:

I can tell you how many points the Colts would need for me to bet on them in this game, twelve. If Indianapolis was getting twelve points I would take them, because I don’t think they lose by two touchdowns at home. Otherwise, it’s all about the top teams in NFL Week 6. I’ll see your New England and Arizona, and raise you Atlanta and Cincinnati.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 at New Orleans Saints
Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 at Buffalo Bills

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I hate to pick road teams giving up points, but when we are talking two teams currently undefeated and rolling along, you go with them. Starting with the Falcons, who travel to New Orleans on Thursday night, it’s almost a crime that they are giving up barely more than a field goal. I realize Atlanta escaped with a victory over Washington last week, but let’s take a look at the point differentials in each of the Falcons’ victories.

Atlanta defeated the Eagles by two points, the Giants by four points, the Cowboys by 11 points, the Texans by 27 points, and the Redskins by six points (in overtime). Are the Saints better than any of those teams? Significantly better? The answer is no, they are not significantly better, and Atlanta will be looking to shred a Saints’ defense ranked dead last in the league. Give the points and ride the victory train.

In my second game I’m sticking with another undefeated team, this time visiting a more seasoned opponent. Yet for all its bluster, the Bills are 18th in the league in total defense, and 24th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Guess which team is first in total offense, and fifth overall in passing yards per game? The Bengals are.

Cincinnati fought hard to defeat the Seahawks last weekend, and won by a field goal. What Vegas is basically telling you is that Buffalo will win this game, which is wrong. Most victories come by at least two points, and the Bengals victory on Sunday in upstate New York will be no different. Give up that measly point and a half. Feel good about it.

Dan Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spin Zone. He’s also Lead Editor, Staff Writer, and Featured Vlogger at BuzzChomp, and a New York Jets Analyst for Pro Football Spot. Follow him on Twitter, Facebook, Google+, or Instagram.

Todd Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spin Zone. He’s also a Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp, a Featured Columnist at Bleacher Report, and an Analyst for Tipster Labs, among others. Follow him on Twitter.

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