Houston Texans: Time to Move on From Arian Foster

After missing the first three weeks of the season with a groin injury, Houston Texans star running back Arian Foster was just starting to look like his old self again. His yards per rush and yards per reception steady climbed up each game he averaged 118 yards from scrimmage and 1 touchdown per game over the last three weeks.

Enter: soft tissue injury.

Foster motioned out wide on a play late in the fourth quarter of his team’s 44-26 loss to the Miami Dolphins, where he fell to the ground clutching his leg, without being touched by opponents. Anyone who has watched the Houston Texans play over the last several years is all too familiar with this sight. Houston was trying to find some offensive rhythm in the midst of the beatdown and Foster had been key to their offensive success all day, scoring his team’s first two touchdowns.

Houston head coach Bill O’Brien was asked if he regretted having Foster out so late in what was already a lost game:

"“No, I thought at that point it was … I think there were between four and five minutes left in the game, and we were trying to get a touchdown there,” O’Brien said (via ESPN’s Tania Ganguli). “So, no.”"

Foster was on crutches after the game, and the word is that he has a torn achilles, an injury that would end his season. Foster will have an MRI to confirm this, but it seems as though we will not see Foster suit up again in 2015. In fact, we may well have seen the last of Foster in a Houston Texans uniform.

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Foster has started all 16 games in a season only once in his career, and since his breakout 2011 year where he lead the league in yards and touchdowns, he’s missed 17 games due to injury, and has been limited in many more. According to SportsInjuryPredictor.com this is Foster’s 15th injury since college, and he has required at least six surgical procedures. One has to wonder how much more beating Foster’s body can take.

When he’s been healthy, Foster has been elite. He’s averaged 115 yards per scrimmage per game over 76 career games, has 68 career touchdowns, and boasts an impressive 5.1 yards per offensive touching his career. Few backs in history have put up those kind of numbers, but its tough for any team to rely on him knowing that he could go down with a season-ending injury at any moment. If the MRI confirms Foster’s torn achilles, this will likely be the second time he finishes a season on the injured reserve in only his sixth season as a full time starter.

In 2016, the Houston Texans will have a cap hit of $9.3 million if they keep Foster on the team. They save some money if he is unable to play, but would save roughly $7 million by cutting him. That option seems to be looking better and better. Texans owner Bob McNair has already expressed a certain level of frustration with Foster’s injuries, claiming to not be surprised after Foster’s preseason groin injury (via John McClain of the Houston Chronicle):

McNair on Foster groin injury "Can't say I'm surprised. It seems like every year he's had a soft tissue injury. We keep our fingers crossed"
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) August 6, 2015

McNair may be about ready to cut ties with his oft-injured star. Not only does Foster cost the team plenty of money, but as long as he’s on the team there will be an inkling of hope that he can return to his All-Pro form. With Foster gone, the team would be able to move on financially and strategically, beginning the search for their next franchise running back.

Houston hoped they may have found their next solution in last year’s 6th round pick Alfred Blue. He’s been the primary fill-in when Foster has missed time, but hasn’t shown much potential to be a true franchise tailback. Blue had a breakout game in Week 3 against the Buccaneers when he ran for 139 yards and a score on 31 carries, but his career 3.3 yards per carry average and total of 18 receptions show Blue’s deficiencies.

Blue had one big game last season as well, rushing for 156 yards when filling in for Foster against the Cleveland Browns, but quickly regressed to the norm, averaging less than 3 yards per carry the next week against the Bengals. He’s caught only 3 passes this season despite starting the first three weeks, showing that Houston doesn’t believe he can be an every-down back making an impact in all phases of the game.

Former Philadelphia back Chris Polk has also seen considerable work this season, but has been equally unimpressive. He’s handled much of the passing-down work, and Bill O’Brien likes him as a change-of-pace guy, but he doesn’t seem to have what it takes to be an every-down back. He runs with a lot of energy, but doesn’t have the speed required to break a lot of big plays. He also isn’t big enough to be a bruising power-running type of back. He fits his role well, but likely can’t be relied on for more than 5-10 touches a game.

The Texans could elect to scour the free-agent market for running backs, but it seems hard to imagine the likes of Ray Rice, Pierre Thomas, or Steven Jackson would be good fits for the team if they haven’t made it onto a roster yet this season. Houston’s best bet may be to wait until the 2016 NFL draft to hope to draft Foster’s successor.

The Texans are 2-5 and don’t have the looks of a team that can make a second half push, so they will likely be in a decent position to grab some top talent come draft-day. If Foster indeed has played his last down as a Texan, it may be time to start imagining what Ohio State star running back Ezekiel Elliot will look like in the red and blue of the Houston Texans.

Next: Who are the greatest QBs in NFL history?

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