NFL Predictions Week 11: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

Its time to roll the dice and trust your gut in week 11, as this screwy year marches on. These are you Best Picks Against The Spread (ATS) for NFL Predictions Week 11. Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Check out more of the brothers in Seesaw Sports Debate on BuzzChomp. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

You know how to tell it’s been a screwy year? Through ten weeks, there are a ton of teams with terrible records against the spread ,and others with sparkling records. That means even when teams are bad, Vegas can’t coordinate the spreads to get covers. And even when winning teams keep winning, no one knows how many points they should give.

Baltimore dropped to 2-7, but has been even worse at 1-7-1 ATS. Cincinnati is 8-1 on the year and 7-1-1 ATS. Dallas is 2-7 both straight-up and ATS; same with Detroit. Minnesota is 7-2, and 8-1 ATS on the year. New England at 9-0, is only 5-2-2 ATS. They’re one of the few teams that has a somewhat normalized record, and it’s the team everyone expects to blow opponents out. Very weird stuff.

Dallas Cowboys Pick’em at Miami Dolphins
Green Bay Packers Pick’em at Minnesota Vikings

Romo! Romo! Romo! Week 11 marks the triumphant return of Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. Barring any setback during practice this week, Romo will make his first start since going down in Week 2.

Is there any bigger addition any other NFL team will see at any point this season than the upgrade Dallas will experience finally moving on from Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel to Romo? This team was 2-0 with even partial Romo performances this year and 0-7 without him. 0-7! I still think Dallas may be the best team in the NFC East. It may have fallen too far behind to make a comeback for the division title, but this is certainly a better team than the Miami Dolphins. Rust or no rust, I like the confidence Romo will bring back to this roster.

ALSO ON SPINZONE: NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

As for Green Bay, call it a gut decision. I just feel as though the Packers are more talented than Minnesota, despite the Vikings being at home in this one. Last year, Aaron Rodgers told everyone to relax when the team was struggling. This year, the Pack has now lost three straight ballgames. It’s not quite time to panic, but it is no longer time to relax if GB drops this one to the Vikes.

I think Minnesota is a little too highly regarded right now, and the Packers have a few too many doomsday-ers. The defense has been poor lately and even the offense didn’t show up for most of last week. I have no definitive proof that Green Bay is going to turn its season around. 2015 may simply not be its year because of injuries on offense and everything else. Call this pick a hunch though that Rodgers and company can win outright in Minnesota.

Nov 15, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders outside linebacker

(57) reacts after making a tackle against the Minnesota Vikings in the fourth quarter at O.co Coliseum. The Vikings defeated the Raiders 30-14. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

DAN:

Wow, you picked two teams straight up on the road. The home team usually gives three points when all things are equal, so obviously you took the favorites in these matchups. But considering the piss poor play of both the Cowboys and Packers, I will be opting to save my money from such unknowns, instead betting it all on two power offenses. Both of my matchups also feature bad defense, a perfect combination for winning.

Oakland Raiders -1.5 at Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs -3 at San Diego Chargers

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The Raiders may have stumbled a bit of late, and Detroit is coming off a huge win against the Packers. But that’s a very small sample size. Let’s instead take a look at the larger season as a whole. Oakland is scoring a lot, putting up twenty or more points in six of its nine games. The Lions have given up over twenty points in seven of their nine games, while only crossing the twenty point mark twice on offense.

Oakland is playing for the playoffs, while Detroit merely has pride to go for. Consider this a ‘trap’ game for the Lions, who are coming off the biggest win of their season, and have their annual Thanksgiving game next week to look forward to. Only the Raiders need this victory, and only the Raiders are a good football team. Give the points.

As for my second matchup, it’s the Chiefs who have something to play for in the AFC, while San Diego is done. After five straight losses, the Chargers merely want to keep their team in San Diego and look respectable. They’ve played every game close, so why pick against them? Because Kansas City is finally playing like the playoff team we expected them to be when the season began.

Next: 2016 Super Bowl Predictions - Packers Still Make It

Kansas City is on a three game winning steak, having scored over twenty points in all three victories. The playoffs are a legit possibility now as well, so consider both momentum and the stakes on their side. The Chiefs are flat-out better, so take confidence in giving up a field goal in this game.

Dan Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spinzone. He’s also Lead Editor, Staff Writer, and Featured Vlogger at BuzzChomp, and a New York Jets Analyst for Pro Football Spot. Follow him on Twitter, Facebook, Google+, or Instagram.

Todd Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spinzone. He’s also a Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp, a Featured Columnist at College Sports Madness, and an Analyst for Tipster Labs, among others. Follow him on Twitter.