Allen Robinson: Beats Brady as 2015 Fantasy Football MVP
By Dan Salem
Wide receiver Allen Robinson tops Tom Brady as the 2015 Fantasy Football MVP. The MVP must be the most valuable in points and draft value, with a bonus to dominating on a below average team.
Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Check out more of the brothers in Seesaw Sports Debate on BuzzChomp. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.
TODD:
Most fantasy football leagues have either entered or are on the precipice of beginning their playoffs. Obviously so much depends on league settings, but I have a simple question. Who has been the fantasy regular-season MVP?
I’m going to throw out nominees. If I end up missing someone, feel free to complete a write-in ballot.
Again, all fantasy league settings are different. If you play in a league that gives bonuses for benchmarks, gives points for receptions or awards exponential scoring for owners who use Philadelphia Eagles players because of the degree of difficulty, your outcomes may be different. But based on standard scoring, the leading fantasy football player right now is Tom Brady.
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This is no surprise. Brady is already approaching 300 fantasy points even in leagues that award four points for passing touchdowns. Because of the way the NFL is headed, quarterbacks always outscore the other positions. That’s also the reason why QBs are normally not thought of as fantasy MVPs. They all score so much, so why reach for an elite one? The 15th-best quarterback, Jameis Winston, has still outscored all players from all other positions. Seriously.
Brady could be an exception this year though. Because of uncertainty surrounding his first four weeks with a pending suspension, he was selected late in drafts. Not later than Winston or Blake Bortles, but later than the top-scoring QB should go. But was it late enough to win this?
The top running back in fantasy has been Devonta Freeman. He’s topped 25 fantasy points in four different weeks and scored in double figures eight straight games before Atlanta’s bye. Freeman was undrafted in most leagues to begin the year because Tevin Coleman was the Falcons’ starting running back. But now he has also missed a game late in the fantasy season and his output is dropping at exactly the wrong time.
Of the wide receivers, the best value is split between Allen Robinson and Larry Fitzgerald in terms of outperforming draft slot. Each is in the top seven in WR scoring despite being selected outside the top 80 players to begin the year.
This comes down to Rob Gronkowski, as most discussions usually do. Gronk is the top-scoring tight end because of course he is. He’s outscoring all other tight ends by about two points per week despite missing a game. But he was a first-round pick in most fantasy drafts and is now sidelined as the fantasy playoffs approach. That has to hurt his candidacy.
There are tons of other great values this year. Fantasy football is so loopy that dozens of undrafted players become must-starts. It’s impossible to name a legit MVP that covers all the bases, but I’m asking you anyway
Dec 6, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws the ball during the first quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports
DAN:
You took this fantasy football MVP debate to an interesting place, and not one I was expecting. The MVP has to be the most valuable player, but I prefer to define value as they do in real life, and not based upon pre-season draft position. Which player produced/over produced for teams more than any other? Which player won owners more weeks, vaulting them from mediocrity into the fantasy playoffs? Granted, this is a harder question to answer, but slapping the value label on players based upon original draft position is only one side of the coin.
I love the candidates you proposed, as they crushed both types of value this fantasy season. Brady (283 pts), Robinson (169 pts), Fitzgerald (137 pts), Freeman (185 pts), and Gronkowski (142 pts) all dominated all season long. Yet I’m not knocking Gronk for being valued correctly in the pre-season. Rather, I’m adding two more players who entered the season at the top of their position, and crushed it none the less.
Antonio Brown – the top WR with 177 fantasy points on the year
Broncos defense – the top D with 158 fantasy points on the year
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I’m not going to ruin this by picking the Broncos’ defense as the fantasy MVP. However, Denver’s unit outscored other defenses by a large margin. When so many teams barely scrape together five points on a weekly basis from their defense, having the Broncos certainly made a huge difference for owners this season.
With both Tom Brady and Cam Newton stride for stride in terms of being the top scorer in fantasy football, I’m looking elsewhere for the MVP. This honor belongs to Allen Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He crushes the two noted value categories, and one more which I just added right now.
Robinson was not highly sought after in the pre-season. Fantasy owners recognized potential, but never imagined it would play out to such success in 2015. He’s currently second among wide receivers, only eight points behind Antonio Brown. Yet Brown entered the year as the top receiver, so playing to expectation works against him here. The third category is one out of a player’s hands. Robinson excelled at the top of fantasy football, and the top of his position, on a below average football team. I’m not going to call the Jaguars terrible, because they are not. Jacksonville is headed in a positive direction, but were not good enough in 2015 to seriously compete with anyone. Despite this, the team had two stud receivers, with Robinson being absolutely dominant.
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An inexpensive draft value, combined with nearly leading his position in fantasy production on a bad football team, makes Allen Robinson the 2015 Fantasy Football MVP. Now what did I do with that trophy?
Dan Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spinzone. He’s also Lead Editor, Staff Writer, and Featured Vlogger at BuzzChomp, and a New York Jets Analyst for Pro Football Spot. Follow him on Twitter, Facebook, Google+, or Instagram.
Todd Salem is a Staff Writer for NFL Spinzone. He’s also a Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp, a Featured Columnist at College Sports Madness, and an Analyst for Tipster Labs, among others. Follow him on Twitter.