NFL Predictions Week 17: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

Some teams have a lot to play for, but others are finished. Don’t get fooled in Week 17 . Your Best Picks Against the Spread for NFL Predictions Week 17. Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

We have reached the final week of the 2015 NFL regular season. For some, like me, this is a welcome end. My picks against the spread this season have been nothing to write home about. For you, however, 2015 has been a continuous hot run. Having picked two games each week ATS, your record heading into Week 17 is 20-12.

Last week was an exciting one. You had the correct logic for taking Dallas over Buffalo, but the Bills ended up covering anyway. You also sneaked away with Cincinnati over Denver by half a point as the game went into overtime.

The trick with Week 17 is figuring out which teams are actually going to try and whether the lines reflect that or not. It’s just the worst type of awful.

Atlanta Falcons -4 vs. New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts -6 vs. Tennessee Titans

Both the Falcons and the Saints are eliminated from postseason contention. Neither technically has anything to play for outside of draft positioning. However, I have a feeling that it would mean something to Atlanta to finish the year with a record above .500. It is 8-7 right now. After beginning the year so hot (albeit with a number of fluky victories against the dregs of the NFC East), it would be a bit demoralizing to not finish with a winning record.

It helps that New Orleans is playing atrocious football yet again. Here’s an interesting tidbit courtesy of Football Perspective: only three times in NFL history has a quarterback thrown for at least 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns and had a losing record.

Drew Brees in 2012
Drew Brees in 2014
Drew Brees in 2015

The spread for this one opened as low as Atlanta -1.5 for some reason. We missed the boat on that bargain, but -4 is still low enough to grab the Falcons at home against this NO defense.

Related Story: NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

As for Indianapolis, it still has a chance at a playoff berth yet is giving less than a touchdown against a team that seemingly quit on the season weeks ago. It remains to be seen who will be playing quarterback for the Colts, but it’s almost assured that Tennessee will not be playing Marcus Mariota, and why would it?

The Titans without Mariota behind center is enough for me to grab Indy giving less than a touchdown with a playoff berth on the line no matter what is in store for the Colts on offense. With no Thursday or Saturday games and Indianapolis playing at 1pm on Sunday, there is no scenario where it gets eliminated prior to kickoff either.

Dec 27, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver

(89) celebrates his touchdown reception against the St. Louis Rams during the third quarter at CenturyLink Field. Seattle Seahawks wide receiver

(16) is at left. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

DAN:

It’s easy to spot motivation in Week 17, but that doesn’t make picking games any easier. I’m focusing on two lopsided lines, both favoring last season’s Super Bowl teams. Let’s close out the year in style.

Seattle Seahawks +7 at Arizona Cardinals
New England Patriots -10 at Miami Dolphins

The Seahawks are looking to bounce back after a rough loss last week, while the Cardinals remain red-hot. Both teams want to garner momentum for the playoffs, making this a hard-fought matchup and a close game.

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Seattle needs it more, wanting to end their year on a high note, and getting a touchdown is a solid grab for a team known for excellent defense. Take the points and roll with the Seahawks.

As for the Patriots and Dolphins, this game is a total miss match in Week 17. The Dolphins fell apart and want to end their year on a positive note, but New England is playing for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They want the number one seed, and to crush the Dolphins. New England rarely loses two in a row, and I’d be surprised if this game was closer than fourteen points.

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Give up the ten, because Tom Brady will be playing angry and scoring at will. Miami’s defense is in for a long day. Take advantage and grab the defending champs.

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