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NFL Playoffs 2016 Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS) Parlay!

By Dan Salem

Sep 29, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) is tackled by New England Patriots tackle Sebastian Vollmer (76) during the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 29, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) is tackled by New England Patriots tackle Sebastian Vollmer (76) during the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /
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The point spreads are crazy in the divisional round, but rolling with our parlays is not. Your Best Picks Against the Spread are three team, six point, parlays. NFL Playoffs 2016 Predictions. Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

Boy, that was a wild wildcard weekend in the NFL playoffs. If Cincinnati’s loss on Saturday wasn’t bad enough, the Minnesota Vikings managed to match it in debilitating fashion on Sunday.

All four road teams did win over the weekend, something everyone sort of expected but no one wanted to predict. We also had a pair of incredibly close finishes; so close, in fact, we both hit on a pair of games ATS while picking opposite sides of the same matchup.

Of course, the reason three-team teases are so deadly is because it’s hard to nail all three outcomes. I fell short, missing on Green Bay and thus missing on my parlay. You, however, came through and collected on the three-team, six-point teaser. You grabbed two teams who lost but covered; tricky but effective this time around.

I’m going to take that lead into the divisional playoff round. Here is the parlay I am looking at:

Kansas City Chiefs +11 (from +5) at New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers +13 (from +7) at Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers +13 (from +7) at Denver Broncos

I know all the road teams aren’t going to win again, but thanks to the six-point swings and high lines, I don’t need them to. All of KC, GB and Pitt are getting at least five points on the normal line despite how dominant the first two looked in round one.

Related Story: What We Learned from NFL Wildcard Sunday

And all of the favorites have huge question marks despite the high spreads. Is New England going to be healthy enough to beat anyone, let alone cover double digits against the hottest team in football? Is Arizona going to be able to shake its Week 17 shellacking and stop a Packers team that looked super impressive? Can Denver generate consistent offense with Peyton Manning at quarterback while also slowing down the Pitt pass attack?

The key to picking underdogs is a belief that they can win outright if all the pieces fall into place. That is certainly the case here. Plus, I’m getting double figures in each game.

Oct 18, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (28) rushes for a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks defensive end Demarcus Dobbs (95) and outside linebacker Mike Morgan (57) during the fourth quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 18, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (28) rushes for a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks defensive end Demarcus Dobbs (95) and outside linebacker Mike Morgan (57) during the fourth quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

DAN:

Wow, you completely shifted focus with your divisional round parlay. It’s hard to argue with your logic, however, as double-digit points are a sweet gamble. I’m striving for a bit more balance than you, taking points while still backing teams I actually think will win.

Denver Broncos -1 (from -7) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Cardinals -1 (from -7) vs. Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks +9 (from +3) at Carolina Panthers

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I avoided the Kansas City and New England game because I refuse to pick against a team on a double-digit winning streak. I also won’t pick against the Patriots in the playoffs. Moving on.

The Broncos are sitting pretty as Pittsburgh comes to town. The Steelers are beat up and bruised from their Wildcard game. They barely escaped Cincinnati with a victory, and lost a key players in the process. Traveling to Denver isn’t going to help them, and Peyton Manning is about to go all Eli on the league.

Manning is itching to win and finish on a positive note. His Broncos are giving up one point at home, and I wouldn’t hesitate to pick them straight up. It’s tempting to take Pittsburgh and all of those points, but don’t ignore your eyes. Denver is better and will win by at least a field goal.

It’s a similar story with the Arizona Cardinals. Everyone is all excited that the Packers beat up on the Redskins. Lots of teams beat up on Washington this season, and many of them were not good enough to make the playoffs. Green Bay is better than Washington in much the same way that Arizona is better than Green Bay. Don’t let Aaron Rodgers fool you. His team is the underdog in this game.

Playing at home, the Cardinals get it done. Give up the point and pick the winning team. Don’t forget the Packers team of the final month of the regular season. One good game against an average opponent doesn’t change reality. Pick Arizona.

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I was torn in my final matchup, as I like Carolina to win. But the last time these teams met it was a very close football game, so I’m feeling good about nine points and the Seahawks. Whether or not they can pull out the victory is irrelevant, Seattle isn’t getting blown out and nine is more than enough to cover.

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