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Super Bowl 50 Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS) Teaser!

By Dan Salem

Jan 24, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) dabs during the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship football game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 24, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) dabs during the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship football game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /
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There’s only one game left and its the biggest and baddest for betting big. Don’t be misguided. These are your best picks Against the Spread (ATS) for Super Bowl 50 Predictions. Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

You have been on fire this postseason with our round-by-round teasers. During the conference title games, you hit your teaser again with New England +3 and Carolina +3. I missed out on half my cover but am not allowing that to keep me down.

As we enter mid-Super Bowl week, another teaser is in our future; one more to round out the 2015/16 NFL season. Since only one game remains, our tease is going to involve the over/under for this match between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos.

The line for Carolina has been steadily climbing all last week and this week. It opened at four points and has risen to six points. The Over/Under has stayed pretty consistent at 45.5 for this one. As always with our playoff picks, we are picking six-point teasers.

Carolina Panthers pick’em (from -6) vs. Denver Broncos
Over 39.5 (from 45.5)

I don’t need any points on the line to feel confident in Carolina winning this game. I would be very surprised if it lost. Teasing the Panthers down to a pick’em is perfect in that regard. Denver’s defense has been superb, so covering a six-point spread would have given me some pause. But I have never felt as though the Broncos would be able to win the Super Bowl.

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With the Over/Under, a battle between two very good defenses has me worried about picking the over. Denver’s last game only reached 38 combined points. But the Panthers offense, especially in the first half of games, has been so epic that just needing the Over to reach 40 seems fair. I wouldn’t feel safe grabbing the Under with what Cam Newton and company have been able to piece together against the supposed best teams in the NFC.

Who knows, Peyton Manning might have some trickery up his sleeve as well to put points on the board.

…okay, who are we kidding? That isn’t going to happen.

Jan 24, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) reacts as he calls a play against the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Patriots 20-18 to advance to the Super Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 24, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) reacts as he calls a play against the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Patriots 20-18 to advance to the Super Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

DAN:

Thank you for the praise, but it all comes down to one game in early February. The Super Bowl is the mother load and I love this teaser. Six points are a lot in any game, but six points in the Super Bowl is like double digits elsewhere.

Denver Broncos +12 (from +6) vs. Carolina Panthers
Over 39.5 (from 45.5)

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Defense wins championships. The Patriots won with defense last season. The Seahawks did the year before that. Prior to the AFC Championship game I would have picked Carolina over Denver and New England over Carolina. But I was disrespecting Denver’s defense. I was not respecting the extra effort made by the Broncos’ to win it for Peyton Manning in his final season, potentially. Denver’s defense is outstanding. No matter how many points the Panthers have scored up to this juncture, they will not be so prolific in the Super Bowl.

This makes taking the Broncos up twelve points an easy bet to take. Denver can hold the Panthers in check, at least enough to cover what is almost two touchdowns. Peyton Manning may not star in this game, but he doesn’t have to. All he has to do is keep this game close and I win this bet.

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In terms of the over/under I truly wanted to take the ‘under’ based upon my argument above. Then I looked at Super Bowl scores historically. It’s a rare game that ends with fewer than 40 points combined. A very rare game. Picking the ‘over’ of 39.5 is a smart move compared to hoping the game stays under 51.5 points. The last two Super Bowls equated to 52 and 51 points respectively. The year before that 65 points were scored. Go with the ‘over’ for this teaser.

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