Arizona Cardinals: Andre Ellington’s murky future
In 2015, the Arizona Cardinals cycled through a few players as their primary ball-carriers before realizing they had something truly special in David Johnson. Chris Johnson‘s contract is expiring and Andre Ellington‘s will end after the 2016 season, leaving question marks on the depth chart behind the Northern Iowa rookie.
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Andre Ellington himself was an explosive rookie sensation for the Arizona Cardinals back in 2013, as he averaged 5.5 yards per carry on just 118 attempts. The Clemson product also showed off serious pass-catching ability, but, unfortunately, that was the only part of his game that carried over into 2014.
After shining in 2013, Ellington failed to hold up under the weight of a larger workload in his sophomore season, as he sputtered to a 3.3 yards per carry average. One of the biggest disappointments of the season, Ellington was woefully ineffective, as injuries and wear-and-tear piled up to remove his electric, tackle-breaking ability. He carried the rock 201 times and added 46 touches as a receiver, but the Cardinals saw him take steps backwards in a season in which the team as a whole took major strides in a positive direction.
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Ellington is entering a contract year, and the Cardinals have to be worried about his health going forward. Back in early January, Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians was asked if his third-year running back was fully healthy following a toe injury, and he promptly responded that the RB wouldn’t be “100 percent until next April”, as per FOX Sports 910’s Mike Jurecki.
Some fans sensed frustration from Arians in that comment, though emotions can be difficult to decipher in a tweet. Ellington would touch the ball just once in the Cardinals blowout loss to the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game, earning no yardage on the ground or through the air, as he didn’t catch the lone target that went his way.
As a whole, Ellington’s 2015 season was as forgettable as his final game of the campaign against Carolina, and he missed another six games due to injury. For Ellington, the main issue isn’t the missed games, but rather the fact that the Cardinals just can’t count on him to be healthy. Even when he does play, as we saw in 2014, he’s often gutting it out at less-than-100%, and that can kill his efficiency.
Interestingly enough, Ellington wasn’t inefficient at all in the 2015 season, because he actually averaged a career-high 6.4 yards per carry. That’s an eye-popping number, but it came on just 45 carries. He needed only those 45 carries to churn out three touchdowns and averaged a career-high 9.9 yards per catch in the passing game, but neither of those numbers mean much with that sample size. If Ellington can only offer the Cardinals 45 carries in a season, that’s clearly not meeting expectations, given his talent.
At his best, Ellington is a game-changing player, and he’s exactly the type of weapon a playoff team would love to have. Though the Cardinals have an even better and more well-rounded running back in David Johnson, there’s nothing wrong with having Ellington as another explosive, agile, and even faster option behind him. With CJ0K set to leave in free agency, there’s more of an opening for Ellington.
That said, 2016 will be a critical season for him, since nothing will be handed to him by Arians or the Cardinals organization. I’m sure they want him to succeed as a playmaker in this high-powered offense, but they simply can’t trust him. He’s injury-prone, he hasn’t been able to shine under a real workload since his rookie year, and he’ll be in the final year of his contract.
But more importantly, most of us would like to see a player as entertaining to watch as Ellington play up to his potential, and he’d also be leaving money on the table if he can’t stay healthy and perform in a contract year. Running backs don’t make much, but playmakers who can toast defenses to the house on passing plays out of the backfield are more likely to earn cash than a plodding, two-down RB (think of Stevan Ridley, who is a quality player but holds little value in the league today).
Ellington’s future beyond 2016 is muddy, and the 2016 waters themselves are just as murky. His health, workload, and effectiveness are not guaranteed, but the upside remains intriguing enough to be worth discussing at length. The Cardinals aren’t wanting for difference-makers around Carson Palmer on offense, especially with Johnson emerging as a star, but it would be lovely to see more of this from Ellington.
That’s only a small fraction of the end of the run, but you can see just how fast he is. But, speaking of Ellington’s latest birthday, the man is already 27, so that’s something to consider when talking about long-term future with Arizona.
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He’s heading into what could be the final few productive years of his career, and we can only hope that they aren’t wasted by injury. If he doesn’t shine in 2016, he may never get a true payday in this league, which would be a shame. That said, he’s certainly been more than the Cardinals bargained for as a sixth-round pick, so, relative to pre-NFL expectations, his career has been a success.