2016 NFL Predictions: New England Patriots Default AFC Favorite

The AFC is poised to be a powerhouse conference next season, led by strong defense and a few stellar quarterbacks. Who’s on top? The New England Patriots are default AFC favorites. 2016 NFL Predictions. Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

As the paint dries on the 2015 NFL season, let’s take one of those patented “way-too-early” looks at next year. ESPN has already released its list of favorites for the 2016 season. Vegas did so as well. Who are your favorites for next season? Let’s start with the AFC.

The Broncos will obviously be coming off of a Super Bowl title, but a lot could change for them. A number of star players on defense, including Von Miller, Danny Trevathan and Malik Jackson, are eligible for free agency. Most folks also expect there to be a change at quarterback for Denver next year.

This latter point doesn’t strike me as a bad thing, and if the major defensive players are retained, Denver has to be the conference favorite. Yet, it isn’t. It isn’t even one of the top three likeliest teams to win the AFC championship according to the sports book odds.

Baltimore and Indianapolis are likely due for bounce-backs next season. Someone like Miami could make moves as a post-hype sleeper a year after everyone forgets about it. But Denver is being taken for granted here. It will have a much better offense next season with Brock Osweiler getting full reins. It will happen almost by default, not even accounting for his improvement as a young player.

The defense was far and away the best in the NFL through the regular season and the playoffs. What am I missing? Are people still giving Peyton Manning credit and thinking his departure will have consequences?

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More than liking Denver’s chances though, I also am not fond of the favorites heading into next year. Pittsburgh has the lowest odds of any team to win the conference yet its defense was average at best. The Steelers also have cap issues pending and are a team that relies heavily on injured stars.

Is Cincinnati any better of a bet? The defense could lose multiple starters to free agency, and Andy Dalton‘s career year wasn’t good enough. If you’re telling me New England has to be the pick in the AFC, I’ll listen, but I won’t agree. Anyone else seems like a long shot.

DAN:

You play the cock tease all too well, leaving me to name the conference’s top four teams and crown our favorite. After hammering out the case for each obvious favorite and basically ignoring the field, I can understand why you’re stumped. The media dismissed the AFC in 2015. Outside of the Patriots and an unhealthy infatuation with the Steelers, no one gave the conference a chance. That outlook did not pan out and a similar story is unfolding for next season.

The AFC is going to be a dominant force in 2016. Although it was this past year, no one seemed to notice. Now we can’t look away. Here are the teams that are better than 80% of what the NFC is trotting onto the field: Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Houston, New York, Indianapolis, Kansas City and Buffalo. That’s at least two teams from every division. Can you name two from every NFC division worth a mention? No.

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I see a bounce back in Miami, Baltimore and Oakland, but nothing strong enough to mention in this debate. Of the teams I listed above, only four have a real shot at winning the conference. I’m eliminating the Steelers for the reasons you mentioned. Barring an offseason overhaul of the defense, Pittsburgh is still a step behind its AFC competition. As we all witnessed, offense only gets you so far and the Steelers always seems banged up. I’m also eliminating the Bills and Colts. Both teams have reasons to be excited, but its their major flaws that will hold them back from the conference elite.

Cincinnati has put together a stellar streak of winning seasons, but I question the team’s ability to keep it going after once again failing to take a step forward in the postseason. Kansas City is in a similar spot. They played over their heads this year, winning a ton of games in a row after starting the season so horribly. I don’t believe the mojo gets any better than it already was.

AFC Top Four:
Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Houston Texans and New York Jets

The theme here is defense and all four AFC favorites have incredible defensive units. Each team is also one offensive piece away from dominating the AFC. The Jets must re-sign their players like the Broncos. Houston needs a better quarterback and/or more weapons, while the Patriots need an every down running back they trust. But each team’s defense will be dominant and that wins football games.

In 2015 the Broncos had the best defense. Of our top four next season, I’d rank the Texans next, followed by New York and New England. But ultimately its the combination of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski that makes New England our 2016 AFC favorite.

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I truly want to pick the Houston Texans as the AFC favorite. Denver feels like it will step back slightly, no matter what Peyton Manning does. New York steps forward, but the age of their potential starting quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and his playoff inexperience scares me. The Texans are sprinting in the right direction, led by their defense. A healthy running game and mistake free football from their quarterback pushes them over the top. Yet those are both hypothetical, while the dominance of Brady to Gronk is a fact. Facts will always be facts. The Patriots are AFC favorites.