Indianapolis Colts Must Bide Their Time Behind Andrew Luck

The Indianapolis Colts have a great quarterback in Andrew Luck, with huge holes all around him. Going for it all in 2016 isn’t an option, but drafting big picture can land them a title later.

We’re tackling each team in the league, traveling alphabetically to debate their biggest offseason issues. Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

After finishing in the top half of the league in 2014 according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Indianapolis Colts took a heavy-footed step back last season, finishing as the 23rd-ranked team in the NFL.

They were average on defense and, in one of the surprises of the season, were simply atrocious on offense. Much of that struggle was thanks to an Andrew Luck injury that had him in and out of the lineup and then completely out of the lineup. However, even when Luck played, the Colts were terrible on that side of the ball.

There is an argument to be made that Luck was hampered even when he was playing and thus 2016 will be a reset for him, the offense and Indy as a whole. After all, this team was expected to run away with the AFC South title last season.

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But just as compelling of an argument can be made against Indianapolis bouncing back. The Houston Texans are going to be good again next year; perhaps considerably better themselves on offense than they were a year ago. The Colts will be down some pieces on defense and could regress to below average on that side of the ball. Also, the offense may not improve. Just assuming Luck is the AFC’s Aaron Rodgers capable of carrying whatever 10 players surround him is misguided. He is still a young player who needs help. Even Rodgers was below his normal production in 2015 without enough help.

Andre Johnson was cut, and he wasn’t much of a help last year anyway. The Colts need more receiving threats outside of T.Y. Hilton now that tight end Coby Fleener is also gone. The offensive line was serviceable but could use improvement as well. Frank Gore is still around, though he doesn’t hit holes like he used to.

Overall, what is to like about the Colts outside of Luck being healthy?

I know they are one season away from being an overwhelming favorite to win their division and one of the teams battling for the conference title, but things change quickly in the NFL. The Colts’ outlook has changed that quickly. I don’t see this as a playoff team unless they get super busy in free agency, adding undervalued pieces to all the holes they have to fill.

There are still useful free agents kicking around, though outside of offensive line, they are mainly veterans on the downside of their careers, and going that route did not work well for Indy just last season. If there’s a plan beyond “hope Luck carries us” I don’t see it.

DAN:

Andrew Luck is an incredible quarterback, good for eight wins if he’s healthy all season. This places Indianapolis in the uncomfortable position of either adding veterans in Free Agency to make the team immediately better around him, or shedding money and having a really awful season in order to draft high in 2017. Colts fans may want to plug their ears for a moment.

Luck is still a young player and Indianapolis has to improve the team around him. If they fail to give him new weapons on offense, or at the very least protect him on the line with consistency, then the Colts will be hard pressed to win a title with Luck under center. He can’t do it all on his own, its impossible. Do the Colts throw away a season to get younger through the draft? Do they think big picture and use 2016 as a rebuilding year with Luck getting healthy again in the process?

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Unfortunately for fans in Indianapolis, I’m not sure the Colts have another option. The free agent market is no longer full of top tier talent. The 2016 Draft has great players in it, but with the 18th pick the Colts are in no man’s land. They can get a really good player, but trading up is their best way to ensure on the field impact this season. What’s even better for the longterm health of the team is drafting in the top ten next year. But that means tanking a season with Andrew Luck, one of the premier quarterback talents in the league, near blasphemy in the NFL as we know it.

If this was the NBA or even MLB I’d say Indianapolis should do everything it can to lose as many games as possible in 2016. What’s one bad season in the grand scheme of things? Andrew Luck is going to be really good for a really long time, under ideal circumstances, so getting him great players to play with is ideal. Yet this is the NFL, so forget all of that.

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Andrew Luck will bounce back this season. His team must get younger and draft with a keen eye towards defense and the offensive line. Luck and elevate his wide receivers and running backs, but he needs protection. He needs the defense to keep points off the board. Those players are available in the draft. If Luck is good for eight wins alone, then some solid draft picks can net them a few extra victories. Ten wins might not get the Colts in the playoffs, but the team would have rebounded nicely from its down year this past season.