With an average of 13.5 yards per completed pass, the Arizona Cardinals offense was more explosive than any other unit in the NFL last season, and they also had an electrifying man in the backfield in Northern Iowa rookie David Johnson.
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Although Michael Floyd and John Brown qualify as marquee playmakers in this league, nobody provided more juice to this aggressive, downfield offense than UAB rookie J.J. Nelson. Measuring in at just 5’10”, 160 pounds, Nelson, who ran a blistering 4.28 40 at the Combine to go with a 127-inch broad jump, sizzled with 27.2 yards per reception.
A sample size of 11 receptions on 27 targets in the regular season is hardly much, but Nelson made every single one of those 11 receptions count. The Cardinals averaged 11.07 yards per play whenever Carson Palmer looked towards Nelson to make a play, and the fifth-round pick made his way into the end zone twice.
According to NFL.com’s Chris Wesseling, Cardinals GM Steve Keim raved, “Oh man, there’s no question,” when asked if Nelson’s role can grow.
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I get that Nelson might be the second-fastest player in the NFL behind Buffalo Bills rookie Kolby Listenbee, but that doesn’t mean we should assume the Cardinals will give him a huge role. In a way, Keim’s “no question” response can be read as facetious, because how can Nelson’s role decline? The guy was only thrown at 27 times last season, which means that he was targeted slightly less than Jermaine Gresham and Darren Fells.
As an ascending second-year player who flashed in his first season from a small school, Nelson is almost a lock to earn more looks. He needed just 11 receptions to notch 299 yards, but does he have the route-to-route consistency to usurp two undeniably talented players in Floyd and Brown? Barring a wild trade, Nelson would have to prove to Carson Palmer and the coaching staff that he’s better than either of them, and that’s a tall task.
See, Brown had a 64.4% catch rate despite averaging over 15 yards per reception, whereas Floyd topped 16 yards per catch and caught 58.4% of everything thrown at him. Is Nelson more than a situational deep threat? Is he big enough and a nuanced enough route-runner to command a bigger role in the Cardinals offense?
Though Brown received 101 targets in his breakout sophomore campaign after a rookie season that had some similarities to Nelson’s (high YPR, low catch rate, albeit with a much higher usage rate), Larry Fitzgerald was still the top dog in the Cardinals offense with 145 targets and a stellar 75.2% catch rate.
It might be tempting to say that Fitzgerald’s huge distance at the top of the Cardinals totem pole could be knocked down some pegs, sending targets to Nelson, but I don’t see that happening. Not only is Fitzgerald still going strong, putting up top-ten wide receiver numbers with competent quarterbacking on his side, but why would the Cardinals take targets away from their most reliable wideout?
The Cardinals have three playmakers competing for targets in Brown, Floyd, and Nelson. Seeing how all five of Floyd’s 100-yard receiving games came at Week 8 or after, I don’t see the Cardinals stripping down his targets to something substantially less than 89. Therefore, if Nelson is to earn a bigger role in this offense, it would come at the expense of both Brown and Fitzgerald, and you could argue that both he and Brown are competing the most.
However, while Nelson is faster, Brown is more agile. He had superior three-cone drill and 60-yard shuttle times coming out, and it’s clear in his route-running that he does a better job of getting open on routes that aren’t as vertical.
Nelson will most likely see an uptick in targets in 2016, but there’s just no way he breaks out. While it would be unwise to completely rule out the idea of him having made marked improvements as a receiver prior to the start of the 2016 season, it’s hard to trust him as anything more than an excellent vertical threat.
That said, he just might be the best pure deep threat in this league, with all due respect to DeSean Jackson, and the idea of him putting in extra work this offseason can be enough for you to convince yourself that a much bigger year is on its way.
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Unfortunately for him, the Cardinals can guarantee high-level production from Fitzgerald, Brown, and Floyd, giving them no reason to truly gamble on Nelson in a role that would lend itself to a true breakout season statistically. More than just stats can be used to evaluate players, so the small speedster could continue to make a name for himself without gaudy fantasy numbers in 2016.